Last week (July 22-28), BTC maintained a high-level consolidation. ETH capital inflow continued to improve, with ETH spot ETF experiencing continuous net inflows for eight weeks, and ETH market share increasing to 11.8%. On July 25, due to Galaxy Digital's large sell-off, BTC briefly fell below the $115,000 support level, dropping to $114,723.16, and then quickly rebounded above the consolidation range. Currently, BTC price is stable around $118,859, with upward momentum gathering, and the maximum weekly volatility was 4.59%.
ETH spot ETF had a net inflow of $402 million last week, outperforming BTC spot ETF, achieving continuous 8 weeks of net capital inflow, with a cumulative inflow exceeding $7 billion. ETH briefly surged and then entered a consolidation period. Driven by funds, it rose again to $3,941 on the 28th, currently stabilizing around $3,876, with the maximum weekly volatility of 12.5% (the above data sourced from Binance spot, July 29, 17:00).
Last week, the three major U.S. stock indexes collectively rose, with Dow Jones up 1.26%, Nasdaq up 1.02%, and S&P 500 up 1.46%. The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield was 4.40%, and the 2-year yield was 3.91%.
Market Interpretation
Ancient whales concentrated selling, BTC price quickly recovers
In late July, the market's focus was on the "ancient whale" large-scale transfer event. On-chain data shows that Galaxy Digital made multiple deposits totaling 80,000 BTC (approximately $9 billion) to various exchanges on July 25. This operation originated from 8 old addresses holding 10,000 BTC each. Galaxy Digital's official announcement confirmed that the transaction was a long-term holder's estate planning strategy, making it the largest single nominal value sell-off in cryptocurrency history.
Affected by the massive sell-off, BTC price dropped from $119,000 to $115,000, showing significant short-term volatility. However, the subsequent market performance demonstrated strong buying support, with BTC price quickly recovering above $117,000, and the sell pressure rapidly absorbed. The 80,000 BTC represents about 0.5% of circulating supply, with an actual impact far lower than market expectations, reflecting the abundant liquidity in the current bull market stage.
ETH approaches $4,000 key level, staking and fund demand polarized
In mid-July, ETH unstaking queue surged, accumulating over 475,000 tokens worth approximately $1.9 billion, mainly due to soaring lending rates triggering concentrated margin call strategies, with many users withdrawing, exacerbating LST/LRT decoupling and secondary market pressure. Simultaneously, new ETH staking demand remains strong, with institutions continuing to accumulate, effectively buffering the impact of large-scale unstaking, showing clear supply-demand polarization.
Since June 2025, ETH has risen nearly 80%, currently approaching $4,000, outperforming most mainstream crypto assets. This round of appreciation is driven by whale accumulation, decreased exchange liquidity, and increased staking scale, with about 30% of ETH now locked in staking, and over 1.5 million new tokens staked, continuously tightening circulation. In the derivatives market, ETH perpetual contract positions hit a new high, with neutral funding rates and rational market sentiment. Institutional allocation accelerates, with spot ETH ETF net inflow exceeding $3 billion in the past two months, and over 10 listed companies holding positions, strengthening medium-to-long-term allocation logic. In market rotation, BTC dominance dropped to 60%, ETH/BTC exchange rate strengthened, making ETH a primary target for mainstream fund inflows.
Altcoin sector divergence intensifies, Solana and XRP capital inflows stand out
Recently, the altcoin market performance has diverged, with Solana and XRP showing significant fund attraction. Last week, Solana saw net inflows of $311 million, mainly benefiting from meme coin trading fever and active DeFi ecosystem, becoming the first choice for developers and users due to high throughput and low-cost advantages. XRP net inflow reached $189 million, benefiting from the near-conclusion of SEC litigation and cross-border payment business progress, creating a $3.66 historical high in July, with spot ETF approval further enhancing liquidity.
Other altcoins performed differently. SUI net inflow was $8 million, with market attention on its Move language ecosystem innovation; Litecoin and Bitcoin Cash saw net outflows of $1.2 million and $660,000 respectively, indicating decreased fund preference for "old-brand" projects lacking innovation support. Currently, ETH still leads mainstream coins, and Solana and XRP's ecosystem expansion may drive new fund inflows.
Market Highlights
Focus on macro data and policy trends, market volatility may intensify
This week, macro policies and tech sector earnings will be core variables affecting market sentiment. The White House's first crypto policy report will be released on July 30, potentially bringing new regulatory guidelines for the digital asset industry. On July 31, the Federal Reserve will announce the latest interest rate decision, with Chair Powell attending the press conference. Currently, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is 62.4%. If the meeting's language or economic outlook changes, it may trigger a re-evaluation of monetary policy.
In the tech stock sector, Nasdaq-listed BTC financial company Strategy will disclose Q2 earnings after U.S. stock market close on July 31 and hold an online seminar. As a significant BTC asset holder, its financial report will be a market focus. Combined with upcoming GDP, employment, and inflation data from major global economies, market volatility may further amplify under the interweaving of macro and industry fundamentals. Investors should closely monitor policy trends and key financial report performances, and be cautious of market disruptions from sentiment changes.
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