Recently, the market seems stable, but there are undercurrents, especially for #ETH.
I must warn: the situation is not looking good. Previously, ETH rose from 1300 to 4000 with perfect volume and price coordination, so I was firmly bullish. But in the past few days, we felt something was off - rising on low volume, weak willingness to buy, daily MACD death cross, and on-chain funds starting to flee. These signals together likely indicate: a potential top for this stage.
Let me break down the on-chain data for everyone:
- Before, ETH rose because whales moved coins out, exchange reserves decreased, supply reduced, naturally driving price up.
- But now? ETH reserves suddenly surge, meaning someone is sending coins back to exchanges to cash out. Those familiar with this rhythm understand: last time it dropped significantly this way.
I warned last week that over 600,000 ETH will be unlocked starting this week, which puts significant market pressure. Technically, the 4000 level has extreme resistance, and even if it breaks through, it's likely a "false breakout to trap buyers". Once the breakthrough fails and drops back, it's the best opportunity to short. For short-term, I'll be watching the 3200-3300 area.
To confirm the bottom, we still need to look at the Fear and Greed Index - right now, the greed sentiment is too high to be an entry point.
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Now let's look at Bitcoin:
In comparison, #BTC performs stronger. Although MACD also shows a death cross, the price remains stable above 110,000. Behind this is continuous institutional accumulation - BTC reserves on exchanges continue to drop. We've discussed that each BTC bull market doubles, and this wave's endpoint might be 140,000. But before that, it needs to consolidate and build momentum.
I personally lean towards October being BTC's true breakout window - ETF narrative developing, macro benefits concentrated. Refer to the article for related narrative tokens:Federal Reserve "slacking", ETH failing to break 4000 four times? One article to help you understand what SOL, DOGE, XRP, ENA and other altcoins are up to!
Altcoins are performing quite poorly:
#PEPE and other altcoins have already dropped 30% from their top, and if BTC continues to consolidate, they'll suffer more. I plan to buy a bit around PEPE's 0.085, and consider DOGE around 0.2.
In this ETF narrative, the coin I'm most optimistic about doubling isn't the old dog, but the new dog king #PENGU.
Why? It not only has meme culture, but is backed by Wall Street. Its CEO directly participates in US crypto legislation and ETF applications, Panda took it to ring the NASDAQ bell, and both Coinbase and Animoca have changed their avatars for it. Most crucially, its market cap is only over $2 billion, while #DOGE is over $30 billion. If the ETF is truly approved in October, doubling is not a dream. I'll wait for it to drop to around 0.028, a previous dense trading area, before considering entry. I hope it drops more - the lower the chips are accumulated, the greater the future space.
Finally, about the macro perspective:
Yesterday's PCE inflation data shocked me: surging to 2.6%, core PCE also exceeded expectations. What does this mean? September rate cut is likely off the table, as the Federal Reserve hasn't mentioned easing at all. Moreover, previous data was quietly "revised upward" - meaning the previous low inflation was fake. So the market needs time to digest this negative news. However, October becomes the most anticipated breakout window:
- ETH large-scale unlocking ends
- BTC completes consolidation
- ETF expected to be collectively approved
- Rate cuts and policy benefits may be concentrated
So now the most critical thing is: endure the volatility, choose the right moment, and layout for October.
That's it for the article! If you're lost in the crypto world, consider laying out and harvesting with me! Follow the public account: Meow Sister Talks Coins
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