The recent market trend has been quite intense, and many people are asking: Has the decline of BTC and ETH ended? Don't rush to be optimistic; let's carefully analyze it.
First, let's look at Bitcoin. Last night's sell-off directly dropped to the 112-113 range, rebounding after touching the short-term support. However, from the larger structure, the daily line had already completely broken through the key 116 position, dropping to around 114 before forming a lower shadow. In the early morning, it further explored down to around 1127, almost exactly matching my support judgment from yesterday's early commentary.
Ethereum appears weak on the surface, but in reality, this decline is much more "moderate" than imagined. From the high point to last night's low point, the total decline hasn't even reached 20%. Note that Altcoins started sliding early when BTC and the second-largest coin were consolidating. So these past two days, while BTC and ETH seem to be falling sharply, Altcoins haven't immediately followed with an avalanche. But don't celebrate too early; once the mainstream coins confirm the next round of decline, Altcoins often concentrate their drop. Be especially careful next week; as previously expected, many Altcoins might experience a halving from their high points.
Next, let's look at the forecast for next week:
Bitcoin has dropped nearly ten thousand points from this week's high to last night's low, which is indeed significant. However, for trend traders, this is a typical healthy pullback. Currently, BTC is at the 112-113 support zone and theoretically will have a short-term rebound, looking at the 115-116 resistance zone. Personally, I judge that this rebound won't be very strong, and the market could explore lower at any time. If sentiment weakens, there's a high probability of breaking below 110,000 next week, with a target directly at 107. If the bears exert force, it might even look towards the 102-107 range.
ETH is similar, appearing weak but actually rebounding after dropping to around 3400, which is a relatively standard technical retracement. Next, pay special attention to several key resistance zones: 3560-3620. If the rebound is stronger, be cautious of resistance around 3660. If the rebound is weak and the market breaks below 3500, the next stop will likely test support around 3300 or even 3000.
I've always emphasized: At this stage, rebounds should only be viewed as shorting opportunities. I don't recommend rashly buying the dips. Maintaining an empty position and patiently waiting for signals is much more stable than chasing highs and killing lows. Don't be fooled that Altcoins aren't dropping deeply; that's because they dropped early during the mainstream coins' oscillation. Next, once BTC and ETH break to new lows, Altcoins might drop an additional 10-20 points, and in extreme market conditions, the decline could expand to over 30%.
Therefore, the most important strategy currently is: **Control position size, wait rationally, and don't be misled by rebounds.** If there's a short-term surge, it's a perfect opportunity to set up short positions.
If you're also observing the next move, leave a comment and say what you think: Will BTC rebound first or directly drop? Let's understand the market together. The article ends here! If you're feeling lost in the crypto, consider joining me in layout and harvesting from market makers! You can join the community without threshold via WX+QQ group to get market analysis, Altcoin operations... WeChat: c13298103401 or QQ: 3806326575
