The market movement in the past two days has been very similar to the script I previously predicted.
BTC officially retested the key support levels at 114 and 112, with no major surprises, but whether it can hold depends on whether the US stock market can first stop its decline. This wave of US stock market plunge started from the post-non-farm correction, with various macro data appearing this week, and the September rate cut expectations being repeatedly discussed. The market couldn't sustain itself and began to continuously fall.
Crypto-related stocks like MicroStrategy and CB have been weak for two consecutive weeks, and the crypto market naturally couldn't escape unscathed. Overall, this wash-out is basically complete. I previously said that if BTC could break through 140,000, I would consider exiting. Indeed, after high-level stagnation and subsequent decline, the volume clearly didn't keep up, and the trend is much weaker than previous breakthroughs. This breakthrough was just a small green candle, with bulls starting to lose strength, no longer in the previous rhythm of creating new highs with a surge in volume.
Currently, 110,000 is a key support level. If it can't be maintained, the bull market hasn't ended, but its rhythm will be disrupted. #ETH isn't doing well either, dropping 500 points in a large red candle, breaking previous lows. In the short term, if it can't hold, it might retest around 3000.
Did you catch Ethereum's amazing move? Detailed reference article:Powell's speech is imminent, can ETH withstand another round? Altcoins continue to fall, where are the structural opportunities in August? When to buy the dips?
But don't be too pessimistic. I believe it's more important now to observe BTC's momentum structure - it's still within the bull market framework, just with a slower upward pace. The previous three rallies were all after consolidation and then breakout. If it can pump upward in small steps this time, it depends on the bulls' resilience.
Back to ETH. Those with many altcoins are hoping for ETH to strengthen. Without ETH's movement, altcoins lack elasticity. So my focus is now on whether ETH can stabilize around 3,500. If it can't hold, 3,000 is the bottom line.
A liquidation wave was also concentrated yesterday. The network's 24-hour liquidation amount reached $1 billion, with 217,000 people swept out of the market, and the total market value evaporated by 6.9% overnight. The crypto market has once again returned to the stage of "bloody chips".
However, from my personal trading perspective, I actually like this "waterfall + despair" rhythm.
Why? Because coins are now falling to prices I'm willing to buy.
#SOL: This coin has been stagnant since the beginning of the year, with its heat and momentum exhausted. But the ETF is basically confirmed, which is a qualitative change event. Often, it's at such times that weak structures welcome fundamental reversals. I've already started secretly positioning.
#Doge: The old dog coin was the first to fully retrace, with prices stabilizing in the Fibonacci 0.5-0.618 retracement zone. Technically, it has formed a classic 123 reversal structure. The plate refuses to fall, looking bullish.
#PENGU: Almost back to the neckline area of the circular bottom. If it can hold the key support this time, the structure will remain intact, and it could sprint at any moment. Keep an eye on it, don't relax.
#HYPE: One of the hottest altcoins this round. Although it recently broke below the upward channel, it actually provides an opportunity for early accumulation. I've marked several key support levels on the chart. If it continues to retrace, I'll wait for the signal to enter. Don't forget, $HYPE is one of the few potential coins discussed alongside $BNB this round.
Summary: The market is still within the bull market structure, but now is not the stage of full-scale attack, but the rhythm of "secretly positioning". If BTC holds 110,000, it still has an upward opportunity; if ETH stabilizes at 3,500, altcoins will have vitality; and for individual coins that have completed technical retracement, now is the time to gradually build positions.
Bullish on the big picture, but respect the short-term rhythm. The bull market won't wait, so don't be slow to act.
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