These days, the market has fallen quite sharply, but I'm not too worried. The rhythm has reached a stage of "needing patience" - not the end of a downturn, nor a bull market restart, but the critical zone of oscillation and adjustment.
BTC: This is not the highest point, the true turning point has not yet come
#BTC is approaching a key support zone, this position is not the top, at most it can be considered a midpoint of an upward wave. Based on the current rhythm, it will take at least 2-3 small wave cycles to potentially form a true high point.
During the oscillation period, the market is often most grinding. It is neither long nor short, but leans towards the "correct side". In other words, don't guess the direction, but learn to wait for signals. Personal suggestion: maintain a wait-and-see attitude before August 7th, do less, and watch more.
ETH: Initial stop-loss signal appears, but confirmation still needs verification
ETH is currently in an interesting position:
- Short-term trend: Weak but near support
- Long-term structure: Still strong, bullish unchanged
From a technical perspective, the four-hour chart has shown a morning star pattern, which, although not accompanied by volume, appears at a key support level, which is itself a relatively standard stop-loss signal. This means: this wave of pullback from the high may have come to an end.
If it can quickly return above $3,500 and stabilize in the oscillation zone, then this pullback is most likely just a "wash" of long positions. ETH's rise from $1,400 to $3,900, with a current pullback of around 10%, is honestly quite normal. Moreover, it was approaching the previous high, and breaking through requires accumulation.
During this stage, the most common mistake many people make is going long or short prematurely. But what I want to emphasize is - in an oscillating market, when the direction is unclear, waiting itself is the optimal strategy.
"Waiting does not mean doing nothing, but waiting for the market to give you certainty, and once it appears, dive in without hesitation."
Therefore, I choose to rest in place before August 7th, neither chasing nor blindly going short. If I were to make a move, it would at most be a tentative bottom-building position.
Macro Perspective: Rate cut is not absent, but waiting for the script to land
The biggest uncertainty in the market now is actually the Federal Reserve's attitude. It's not that they don't want to cut rates, but they need a "justifiable" timing point. After all, no one wants to be the "scapegoat who caused a market crash" by cutting rates first. With Trump's tariffs and consecutive "explosive" non-farm data, the market will eventually be forced to reach a consensus on rate cuts. But before that, there might be some emotional fluctuations.
DOGE: A sample of escape in meme coins
#Dogecoin has been falling quite miserably: 24-hour drop of 4%, hitting a low of 0.19, with two volume surges, generating a daily trading volume of over 900 million, a standard institutional escape pattern. Contact+Q: 3806326575
Currently supported around 0.188, with 0.203 above acting as a solid top, repeatedly suppressing rebounds.
Coupled with macro instability and risk aversion, the short term will depend on whether 0.19 remains stable, otherwise it will continue to explore lower.
XRP: Hammered, 2.75 is the lifeline
#XRP has also been brutal: dropping from 3.02 to 2.75, with institutional massive selling and doubled trading volume. Although it slightly recovered to 2.82, 2.84 above has become a significant short-term pressure. Currently, it depends on whether 2.75 is a stage support. If it can't hold, it will continue to drop. Without breaking 2.85, don't expect a sustained rebound.
ADA: V-top formation, buyer fatigue is obvious
#ADA recently formed an inverted V structure, a typical top signal, indicating buyer fatigue and obvious momentum consumption. It is now precisely treading near the 50-day moving average (around $0.679), a very critical position.
If it can't hold, it may easily slide towards lower targets; if it holds, the first rebound observation point is above EMA-9. Only a quick rise above it can confirm a stop-loss.
Summary: The most feared thing about market trends is not the decline, but making the wrong decision at the wrong time. Don't be afraid of missing opportunities. When the true main rising wave comes, the market will definitely give a signal. The key is whether you can wait.
The article ends here! If you're feeling lost in the crypto world, consider joining me in layout and harvesting from market makers! You can join the community via WeChat+Q group for market analysis, altcoin operations.... WeChat: c13298103401 or QQ: 3806326575
