Grayscale, a global digital asset management company, has released an analysis suggesting that concerns about quantum computers threatening Bitcoin's security will have minimal short-term impact. While acknowledging the potential for quantum technological advancements to require structural changes to cryptographic systems, the company believes they are unlikely to significantly impact market prices for at least several years.
Grayscale, in its 2026 Digital Asset Market Outlook report, stated that while “quantum computers pose a potential long-term threat to the cryptographic technology of Bitcoin and other blockchains,” it “is unlikely to have a direct impact on price volatility next year.”
The report explained that quantum computers currently in development have clear technical limitations in effectively defeating public-key cryptography, the core security architecture of Bitcoin. In particular, it emphasized that even if a quantum computer capable of threatening Bitcoin's cryptographic system were to emerge, it would be unlikely to become a reality before 2030 at the earliest.
Accordingly, the analysis suggests that the "quantum computer shock" feared by the market is unlikely to occur in the short term. Grayscale stated, "The likelihood that quantum technology advancements will lead to immediate price drops or network collapse is limited," and assessed that at this stage, mid- to long-term preparation for technological change is more important than excessive fear.
However, the report added that research and preparation for post-quantum cryptography must continue from a long-term perspective. As quantum computers reach commercialization, blockchain networks will also inevitably face the challenge of transforming their security architecture.
Grayscale's latest analysis is interpreted as a message that partially allays concerns that quantum computers could cripple Bitcoin, which have recently spread across global financial markets and the cryptocurrency community. It reaffirms that the key variables in short-term market volatility remain macroeconomic factors such as interest rates, regulations, institutional demand, and ETF flows.
