PancakeSwap launches the Probable prediction market on the BNB Chain. Photo: Coinfomania
Another new name has appeared.
PancakeSwap has just announced Probable , a new prediction market platform backed by the decentralized exchange and YZi Labs , marking a new step for the BNB Chain ecosystem in the race to dominate the rapidly growing prediction market .
Introducing Probable, an onchain prediction market on @BNBCHAIN , incubated by @ PancakeSwap and @yzilabs
— Probable (@0xProbable) December 16, 2025
Learn more → https://t.co/hithJvb0OO pic.twitter.com/rNHTCxmpwr
According to the announcement, Probable will allow users to bet on the probability of events occurring, from crypto price fluctuations, global economic and political events, sports results, to niche markets – content rarely seen in current prediction markets.
Probable is expected to launch exclusively on the BNB Chain and will not charge transaction fees in the initial phase. This is also a familiar approach for products in the PancakeSwap ecosystem, which sacrifice initial revenue to gain market share, especially in today's fiercely competitive prediction market.
In terms of user experience, Probable continues to prioritize simplification. Users can deposit any Token , and the platform will automatically convert it to USDT on the BNB Chain, eliminating the need for manual swapping or bridging.
In terms of infrastructure, Probable uses UMA 's Optimistic Oracle to verify results and distribute payments. This is an oracle model already used by many DeFi protocols, operating on a mechanism where results are accepted by default if not objected to within a specified timeframe.
Although initially supported by PancakeSwap , Probable is confirmed to be an independent project, not a module directly integrated into the DEX.
However, BNB Chain isn't just Probable. Earlier this month, CZ also unveiled another new prediction market called predict.fun , which allows users to earn additional returns on their locked Capital while waiting for prediction results.
A fiercely competitive environment
Probable and predict.fun emerged at the perfect time , coinciding with a massive boom in the prediction market . Since October, leading platforms Kalshi and Polymarket have consistently recorded monthly volume in the billions of USD , transforming the prediction market from a niche segment into one of the hottest fronts in crypto.
Large capital inflows have led to the arrival of major players. Kalshi is currently one of the few federally licensed platforms in the US. Polymarket excels in speed and market responsiveness, especially during high-profile events like the 2024 US presidential election . Conversely, MetaMask , Robinhood , and Gemini approach the prediction market as a complementary product layer, integrating directly into existing ecosystems to retain users.
The game is heating up even more after the CFTC signaled a loosening of regulations , opening up the possibility for the prediction market to operate within a clearer legal framework in the US for the first time. Immediately, Coinbase is preparing to enter the market more deeply, most likely through a partnership with Kalshi.
However, the prediction market is still not entirely free from legal gray areas. In many countries, the line between event prediction and online betting/gambling remains blurred. Even Kalshi, despite being federally licensed, has faced tightening regulations from some state governments.
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