Owen mentioned a good point: Trump and Bassent will start to leverage yield curve control with an active monetary policy. I understand the logic here is that at the beginning of his term, Trump's policy of imposing external tariffs and internal efficiency reforms, layoffs, and cost-cutting aimed to increase revenue and reduce expenses. The intention and starting point were actually not problematic, but the policy implementation pace was completely out of control and ultimately ineffective, creating massive shock waves.
In this situation, the shift from a contractionary policy to an expansionary policy. Although tax cuts and deregulation were the earliest campaign promises, a closer look at the details of the bill suggests that the intensity should exceed Trump's initial expectations.
If the new route encounters problems, then return to the old path. Against the background of tax cuts and significantly raising the debt ceiling, controlling the yield curve and curbing the rise of long-term bond yields becomes crucial. After all, only by suppressing long-term bond yields can future bond issuance costs be reduced and debt burden lowered. However, Powell is not cooperative, so they plan to determine the next Federal Reserve chair within the remaining 11 months of Powell's term, hoping to reduce Powell's market influence through this "shadow chair" arrangement.
The subsequent game between Trump, Bassent, and Powell is worth watching. Personally, I believe that in the short term, the "shadow Fed chair" cannot yet sway the market or hedge Powell's influence, given there's still nearly a year left and the market cannot react so early. However, as Powell's term shortens, the shadow chair's voice will grow increasingly significant. My expectation is that as time passes, when Powell's term is only half a year or even shorter, the "shadow Fed chair's" power will become increasingly strong, at which point the market may no longer focus on what Powell says.
Simply put, Powell's attitude will carry more weight in the next half year, and thereafter, the "shadow Fed chair's" attitude will have greater influence.
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