qinbafrank

qinbafrank

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Investor in Crypto、TMT、AI ，跟踪最前沿科技趋势、野生宏观政经观察、研究全球资本流动性、周期趋势投资。记录个人学习和思考，经常出错常态掉坑爬坑。Runner🏃

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From SEC Chairman Paul Atkins' speech on Thursday night, we can see the driving forces for the industry in the next one to two years. The speech theme was "Building America as the World's Crypto Capital". The most important part of Atkins' talk was announcing the launch of Project Crypto, aimed at promoting the migration of all markets to the chain. Key points of the speech: 1. Clarification of Securities Definition: Develop crypto asset classification standards, clarify the scope of securities law, and allow compliant tokenized securities issuance. 2. Custody and Trading Liberalization: Guarantee user self-custody rights, relax custody rules, and increase market choices. 3. License System Innovation: Introduce a "Reg Super-App" license to reduce duplicate regulation. 4. Decentralized Inclusive Policy: Distinguish between intermediary and non-intermediary systems, protect DeFi developers' rights. 5. Innovation Exemption Mechanism: Establish an experimental channel to support compliant token standards. Actually, the SEC's attitude is not an immediate transformation. Atkins took office in mid-April, and in May at the tokenization crypto working group roundtable, he first mentioned that the SEC will develop a comprehensive regulatory framework for crypto assets, promoting securities migration from traditional databases to blockchain ledger systems. The "de-regulation" main measures will start from issuance, custody, and trading levels. Thursday night's speech was a further step based on the May speech, with clearer policy direction and rhythm. This means that US crypto policy is deepening: From Trump's Bitcoin strategic reserve to the Stablecoin Bill, the Digital Asset Market Structure Act, and this week's "Project Crypto". This should be the main driving force for the second half of the year and the next one to two years: The Stablecoin Bill will drive rapid stablecoin issuance growth; The Digital Asset Market Structure Act will clarify asset attributes and define regulatory boundaries; Project Crypto will truly promote traditional asset migration to the chain, accelerating integration trends. The subsequent crypto market recovery main theme should revolve around these lines, directly benefiting public chains (with ETH being the largest beneficiary, followed by SOL), as well as DeFi and RWA leaders worth focusing on.

关于稳定币法案、币股融合、加密产业发展的认识和迭代，多谢mercy趁这次聊到正好把过往的推文都梳理一下。 1、稳定币相关 1）20250327 新一波稳定币浪潮要来了 https://x.com/qinbafrank/status/1905254289809060024?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A… 2）20250605 稳定币法案给美债找到新的购买力，但并不是化债，https://x.com/qinbafrank/status/1930450515302985916?s=46&t=k6rimWsEbo2D2tXolYcM-A… 2）20250621

Why has the crypto industry been pushed to such a high level by U.S. regulation and industry? I believe there are several reasons: 1. Expanded population: Over 20% of U.S. crypto asset holders, likely over 30% in the young and middle-aged groups, have become an undeniable force. Politicians need to cater to such a large population. 2. Interests determine perspective. Tech giants have participated in crypto assets, and as stakeholders, naturally advocate for their group when gaining a voice. Peter Thiel, Sacks, and a16z's Marc Andreessen are the most active, with Vance recommended to Trump by Peter Thiel. 3. Wall Street veterans Bessemer and Rutnick. Bessemer, who was a fund manager at Soros's London office during the attacks on the British pound and Thai baht, understands global monetary issues. Rutnick's bond investment company helps Tether manage its U.S. Treasury bonds. They naturally envision using stablecoins to intercept dollar usage in non-U.S. regions, finding new purchasing power for U.S. Treasury bonds. 4. More importantly, crypto technology (blockchain, smart contracts) is potentially one of the foundations of future digital economy, alongside AI. Previous discussions suggested that future metaverse natives might be bots or agents, unrestricted by single entities, with unlimited attention to fulfill human needs. Consider how these bots will interact, interconnect, store data, and prevent malicious actions. Smart contracts are likely the best solution. If this occurs, AI could naturally incentivize other bots, agents, and even humans through crypto currencies to complete tasks. Carefully considering, crypto might be preparing for a highly digitized future society. Observing a16z's Marc Andreessen and Ben Horowitz's conversation last October, they share this perspective, possibly representing the collective understanding of the U.S. tech circle. As for policy momentum and pace, it's not unexpected. Two related tweets from last November: 1. The AI and crypto industry during Trump's era should bear the same historical mission as the "information superhighway" in the Clinton era and the "Star Wars program" in Reagan's era. 2. In the coming years, the crypto industry will welcome a "valuation-innovative friendly crypto industry environment" and "relaxed and regulated crypto supervision environment".

如果说之前的GENIUS法案会推动美元上链和稳定币支付，这次SEC主席试图推动的Project x.com/lanhubiji/stat…

Coinbase and Robinhood, the dual crypto stocks in the U.S. market, released their second-quarter financial reports: Coinbase's revenue, trading income, and subscription and service income were all below expectations, with significant profit increase mainly due to investment gains from Circle's listing. In contrast, Robinhood's revenue and profit were significantly higher than expected, especially with a larger EPS beat. This reflects their strategic and path differences: 1) Coinbase focuses on crypto assets, where market conditions affect trading volume. In reality, a large portion of BTC and Ethereum trading has shifted to ETFs, and with altcoins becoming less popular, the lower-than-expected trading income stems from slowing trading volume growth. Robinhood, however, is an all-around player in U.S. stocks, options, and crypto assets, showing more business resilience. 2) Robinhood is transforming into a comprehensive financial platform through tokenization (digital versions of over 200 U.S. stocks), wealth management (Robinhood Strategies, with $500 million in assets), and the upcoming Robinhood Banking. Coinbase, meanwhile, focuses on the crypto ecosystem, launching tokenized stocks, prediction markets, and on-chain products (such as Base and SmartWallet), though new products will take time to contribute to performance.

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