VC investors are born to be prophets and futurists, with their predictions measured on a 10-year scale.
This is especially true for early-stage investments.
To achieve massive returns, unless the rate of technological change suddenly accelerates, such as during the mobile internet era of 11-14 or the AI era after 22, it's difficult to expect a successful IPO within 5 years of the first investment round.
I can think of a few cases of rapid IPO and massive returns after investment: Jumei, Momo, Bawang Tea Ji, Pinduoduo - all went public in about 3-4 years after investment.
Bubble took 7 years from the first investment to going public, and after 13 years, it has become a global sensation; Ximalaya took 13 years from startup to being acquired for billions of dollars; Insta360 took 12 years from the first investment to going public; Mihayou went through an 11-year cycle from first investment to exit; Diezhi took 12 years to reach a billion-dollar scale.
Even excluding the past few years, these companies have all gone through a real ten-year journey. Such examples could be told for three days and nights.
Ten years is so long! The world can completely transform, industries can be reshaped, target audiences can be updated, and even the founding team's state and relationships can change repeatedly.
So how can one break through in this constantly changing landscape?
The only option is to find things that can transcend cycles.
Such as the most fundamental aspects of human nature.
Like the standards for success in the business world.
Or what you believe the world will look like in ten years.
Early-stage investment's massive returns: accurately judging people, having the right imagination, and being able to wait.
Most investors have incorrect imaginations about the future and cannot afford to wait.
Judging people, however, is the easiest part, and most can do it correctly.
