ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics

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Data-Driven Bitcoin Macro Strategy For Financial Advisors, Professional & High-Net-Worth Investors

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The U.S. labor market isn’t anywhere close to flashing red. Yes, some data series are noisy or get revised, as they often do. But step back and look at the trend: the unemployment rate is at 4.2% and has been stable for a year. That’s historically low, and it points to a strong, resilient job market.

Bitcoin is dipping again but the long-term picture hasn’t changed. Another hiccup for risk assets is weighing on price. But over the last 12 months, Bitcoin’s performance remains an outlier. This isn’t a one-off. For two years now, Bitcoin has been a consistent leader. So maybe it’s not worth panicking over a move that looks more sentiment-driven than based on fundamentals.

Bitcoin did well in July but the spotlight belongs to Ethereum. Risk-on sentiment was in full swing, with U.S. stock indices and Bitcoin hitting new highs. But in terms of raw returns, Ethereum was the outlier. It’s still well below its all-time high, but renewed ETF activity is creating a clear path for ETH to start catching up.

There’s still no real progress on inflation this month. Over the past 12 months, the trend has been flat and if you’re being generous, there’s only a very slow downtrend in core services inflation. With numbers like these, it’s no surprise the Federal Reserve isn’t rushing to accelerate the pace of rate cuts.

Bitcoin’s price may be consolidating just below its all-time high, but ETF flows remain strong. Over the last 19 trading days, 15 have seen net inflows. That kind of persistent demand tends to build pressure for a breakout.

Looser financial conditions continue to drive Bitcoin higher. This trend has been in place for the past three years. Looser conditions mean more liquidity, greater risk appetite, and ultimately more capital flowing into assets like Bitcoin. Today, financial conditions are the loosest they’ve been since 2022 and still improving. That’s a strong tailwind for Bitcoin.

For the first time since their launch, the Ethereum ETFs are seeing a surge in inflows comparable to what we’ve seen with Bitcoin. If that dynamic continues, it points to meaningful upside potential and could set Ethereum on a path toward new all-time highs in the coming months.

Bitcoin has climbed from $85K to $119K in just a few months. The driver? Another strong expansion phase in Bitcoin ETF flows which have moved sharply higher. It’s the third time this pattern has played out since last year. And each time, the correlation between flows and price action has been clear.

Bitcoin’s dominance has slipped slightly, from 66% to around 60%, but that doesn’t change the bigger picture. Over the last few years, Bitcoin has been the primary driver behind the expansion of the entire crypto market.

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