ecoinometrics

ecoinometrics

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Data-Driven Bitcoin Macro Strategy For Financial Advisors, Professional & High-Net-Worth Investors

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Bitcoin, gold, and the NASDAQ 100 have dominated performance for two years straight. Sometimes gold leads, sometimes tech stocks or Bitcoin. But the trio stays the same. That’s a persistent trend, not a coincidence.

Bitcoin’s volatility has dropped to the 10th percentile, lower than 90% of weeks in the last decade. That’s despite hitting a new ATH and rallying in May. This is not the old Bitcoin. It’s entering a new regime: strong returns without wild swings. That’s a game-changer for allocators managing volatility budgets.

The yield curve is flashing a signal that strengthens Bitcoin’s core thesis. Short-term rates are pinned. Long yields are spiking. That’s not optimism, it’s the market worrying about U.S. debt sustainability.

Liquidity snapped back and so did Bitcoin. After tightening sharply in February, U.S. financial conditions have reversed just as fast. In four weeks, we’ve gone from a headwind to ultra-loose territory. That’s the kind of macro backdrop where Bitcoin thrives.

Bitcoin ETF flows are doing the heavy lifting. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin ETFs have absorbed more than 75K BTC in net inflows. That’s above the threshold our model historically expects sustained price gains. With the current pace of flows, our ETF flows-to-price model puts

Bitcoin ETF inflows are off to a slow start in 2025, well below last year’s pace. Meanwhile, gold is pulling in more capital. The difference? Investors have been in risk-off mode, and gold fits that narrative better. But macro conditions are shifting. If financial conditions

RT @ecoinometrics: thereum is up just 101% from the bear market bottom, while Bitcoin has gained nearly 500%. The difference? Bitcoin stil…

thereum is up just 101% from the bear market bottom, while Bitcoin has gained nearly 500%. The difference? Bitcoin still has a clear narrative driving flows. Ethereum doesn’t.

For the first time since 2021, the Fed’s tone has turned slightly dovish. Powell is no longer leaning hard on inflation, he’s talking about downside risks.

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