Alf

Alf

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CIO of http://PalinuroCapital.com (Macro Hedge Fund) | Founder of The Macro Compass: Institutional Macro Research

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Picture this. The US is a big oil producer and the issuer of the global reserve currency. Military escalation in Middle East. And yet, the US Dollar can’t rally…

The new podcast with @MacroAlf is up and running. Wondering if the Fed turns dovish at next week's FOMC meeting.

The last 3 core CPI prints averaged 0.14% MoM. That’s lower than in several pre-pandemic periods. The labor market is far from tight. Watch out for Fed speakers…

The new Fed chair Bessent is going to bring rates down. They will be low. So low. It will be beautiful. Thanks for your attention to this matter.

China’s production costs are going down, and they are exporting more cheap stuff in Europe. Couple that with a strong EUR, declining wage growth, and low oil prices. Inflation could well be trending at 1% soon in Europe.

Deficits + tariffs = print new $ + devalue $ via higher prices. Add to that Powell & Co inclined to cut rates at the next possible window. Sell $, Buy assets?

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