ASR-VC Indicator 4h Channel Update:
Currently, $BTC’s 4h channel has completely flattened out and volatility is dropping. Usually, this signals a period of consolidation and energy building up.
The lower edge of the small blue converging triangle in the chart has been broken, but price quickly reclaimed it and retested the breakdown. Meanwhile, the spot premium index is trending up, which means spot buyers started scooping up BTC at 103k...
Q: Cut the crap, bull or bear?
A: Price is still chopping below the midline, so for now, the structure leans bearish. Although price has been ranging around the midline, the distance from the midline is getting smaller, signaling a decisive move is coming. So, mechanically: below the midline = lean bearish, above the midline = lean bullish.
==============================
Q: Is there still a chance for that 102k liquidation + V-shaped bounce we were hoping for?
A: At this point, only a major event-driven move could trigger that scenario. With US stocks closed this Thursday and liquidity thin, if something big happens in the Middle East, we could see another liquidation leg down. So for bottom fishers and shorters looking to take profit, it’s all up to Trump now…
If no such event pops up, after this low-volume range and gradual rebound, there probably won’t be any more V-shaped opportunities for quick bottom snipes.
==============================
Q: I’m long and bagholding, what should I do?
A: Simple—set your stop-loss just below the green demand zone in the chart. As long as this demand zone holds, we’ll keep ranging in this $10k band and there’s still a chance for longs to break even.
==============================
Q: How much longer is this boring chop going to last?
A: We’re still in a textbook range. My base case: this low-volatility chop will most likely end with volatility picking up again. In other words, if we get a small dip first, expect a bigger pump (and maybe an even bigger dump after that). If we fake out above the range first, odds are we’re entering a distribution phase and a bearish trend.
TL;DR: After a long low-volume range, if price pumps first, expect a dump after; if it dumps first, expect a pump after.
==============================
Q: When will my 90k short get out of the hole?
A: Conservatively, probably July–August… Price might keep ranging above 100k longer than most expect, but chances are high that anything below 126k forms a long-term distribution zone.
twitter.com/CryptoPainter_X/st...
