Bitcoin Weak as Futures Markets Clear Amid US-China Tariff War

"US Agricultural and Livestock Products Impose Up to 15% Tariffs"
BTC Plunges... Futures Market Liquidation Reaches About 434.4 Billion Won
Arthur Hayes "BTC Can Plummet to $70,000"

As Bitcoin (BTC) plunged due to the US-China tariff war, a large-scale liquidation occurred in the futures market, causing the cryptocurrency market to plummet on the 10th.

China started imposing an additional 10-15% tariff on 740 items of US agricultural and livestock products from 0:00 am (local time) on the 10th. This is China's response to the US tariff war.

Earlier on the 4th of this month, the US announced that it would apply a second 10% additional tariff on Chinese products, adding about 20% in tariffs on China.

As the US-China tariff war intensified, Bitcoin plummeted, and the liquidation amount in the futures market exceeded $300 million (about 434.4 billion won) in a single day.

Most of the liquidation was the unwinding of Bitcoin long (bullish) bets. Famous trader ThekingFisher explained on his X account on the 10th that a "large-scale long liquidation of Bitcoin at around $84,300" had occurred.

From late morning, as low-price buying pressure flowed in, Bitcoin and altcoins rebounded slightly, but still failed to recoup their losses.

◇Bitcoin = As of 4 pm on the 10th based on Upbit, the Bitcoin price was 12,244 million won. Bitcoin dominance was 61.34%.

According to on-chain analysis platform Glassnode, the long (bullish) and short (bearish) betting ratio in the Bitcoin futures market was 72.96% and 27.04%, respectively.

Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMEX, suggested the possibility that Bitcoin could plummet sharply to $70,000 based on the large open interest in the Bitcoin futures market.

On the 10th, through his X account, Arthur Hayes said, "An ugly week has begun," and explained that "BTC could soon fall to $78,000, and if it fails to defend $78,000, it could drop to $75,000."

He further emphasized that "there are numerous open interests between $70,000 and $75,000 in the futures market, and if Bitcoin falls to $75,000, a violent decline will begin."

Open interest refers to the amount that can be used for settlement in derivative markets such as futures and options contracts. If the price of an asset with high open interest experiences a rapid rise or fall, a large amount can be liquidated, leading to significant price changes in the asset.

◇Rising Coins = As of 4 pm on the 10th based on Upbit, the cryptocurrency that recorded the largest increase compared to the previous trading day was Aave, rising about 8%.

Aave is a decentralized non-custodial liquidity protocol that allows users to participate as depositors or borrowers. Depositors provide liquidity to the market to earn a yield, while borrowers can borrow in an overcollateralized or undercollateralized manner.

◇Fear and Greed Index = The Digital Asset Fear and Greed Index provided by Alternative is at 20 points, maintaining the 'Fear' stage. The Fear stage (20-39) is a period of high price volatility and trading volume, where prices are declining. The likelihood of a short-term bottom formation is high, so caution is advised when making purchases.

The Cryptocurrency Relative Strength Index (RSI) provided by Glassnode is 44.7, recording a 'Neutral' state. RSI measures the relative strength of the upward and downward pressure on a specific asset price, indicating the overbought and oversold levels of the asset.

Reporter Kwon Seung-won ksw@blockstreet.co.kr