BitMEX Former CEO Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin (BTC) Could Reach $250,000 by Year-End
However, this prediction depends on the Federal Reserve (Fed) switching to quantitative easing (QE) monetary policy.
Bitcoin Price $250,000?...US Liquidity is the Key
Hayes argues that stopping quantitative tightening (QT) and resuming liquidity injection will trigger a significant rise in Bitcoin.
"If my analysis of the interaction between the Fed, Treasury, and banking system is correct, Bitcoin has hit a short-term low of $76,500 last month, and now begins its rise to $250,000 by year-end." – Excerpt from his latest blog
This prediction is based on his belief that the Fed will inevitably intervene to support financial markets, which will ultimately drive Bitcoin up.
Additionally, the BitMEX co-founder directly links Bitcoin's potential price movement to the Fed's monetary policy approach. He argues that the central bank's response to fiscal pressure will lead to the termination of QT and a return to de facto QE.
"Powell proved last week that fiscal dominance is still alive and showed he will do anything to allow the Treasury to fund at reasonable rates. Therefore, I am confident that QT will be halted in the short to medium term, at least regarding government bonds." – Hayes
Based on these grounds, Arthur Hayes sees this as a crucial moment for Bitcoin and emphasizes that the pioneering cryptocurrency will "surge after the official announcement".
Hayes also strengthens his prediction's confidence by stating that the bond market, banks, and Congress (which he calls the BBC) will pressure the Fed.
British financial expert Raoul Pal supports a positive outlook on Bitcoin prices. The former Goldman Sachs executive pointed to macroeconomic indicators suggesting an imminent Bitcoin rise.
Raoul Pal shared a chart showing the correlation between global M2 money supply and Bitcoin prices. Historically, Bitcoin tends to rise about 10 weeks after M2 increases, and Pal's analysis suggests Bitcoin may soon enter an upward phase.
"The waiting game is almost over... 10-week lead is my preference... but," – Pal mentioned
QCP Capital Warns of Stagflation
Adding another layer to the macroeconomic picture, QCP Capital analysts warn that the Fed might prefer rate hikes if stagflation occurs, which would complicate the positive outlook for Bitcoin.
"The market continues to price in 2.5 rate cuts in 2025. The Fed is in a difficult situation with weak consumer confidence and soft data potentially signaling a weak Q2 GDP. Simultaneously, tariff-induced inflation pressure could start after April 2nd." – Analyst wrote
Despite Bitcoin recording its worst Q1 performance in 7 years, analysts point to positive momentum, suggesting an imminent price recovery.
"Sellers have disappeared, and buyers seem satisfied at current price levels. This sets the stage for a structural supply shortage. April-May could be a consolidation zone before the next impulse." – Market analyst Axel Adler Jr. mentioned
Veteran investors are also increasing their Bitcoin holdings, a signal often seen in the accumulation phase before a strong price surge. Market data also indicates a decrease in selling pressure from Bitcoin holders, potentially paving the way for a rise to $90,000.
Meanwhile, Standard Chartered noted Bitcoin's growing role as an inflation hedge, further solidifying its position as a macroeconomic asset during uncertain financial times.
Nevertheless, while macroeconomic concerns continue to challenge Bitcoin's appeal, gold is gradually emerging as an alternative store of value. BeInCrypto also reported that gold is standing out as a safer haven amid Trump's 2025 tariff chaos, potentially more secure than Bitcoin.
