While experts and institutions continue to make optimistic predictions about Bitcoin's short-term and long-term prices, some point to divergence signals that may indicate an upcoming reversal.
Divergence signals occur when prices create higher highs, but indicators or related data weaken. This reflects a decrease in momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is facing several divergence signals.
Divergence Signals, Bitcoin Correction Warning
The first warning comes from technical signals on the monthly chart.
Investors often prefer daily price movements and overlook larger time frames like monthly charts. Therefore, this signal could surprise many investors.
A recent report from 10x Research warns that Bitcoin has reached resistance and is forming a pattern similar to 2021. According to the chart, Bitcoin formed two peaks in 2021, with the second peak being higher than the first. The same price pattern appears to be repeating in 2025.
Additionally, analyst Matthew Hyland pointed out a bearish divergence on the weekly chart's RSI. Analyst Mitch Ray also confirmed that Bitcoin shows a bearish divergence on the daily chart's MACD-H indicator.
These multiple divergence signals suggest that Bitcoin is losing its upward momentum. This loss of momentum could lead to a significant correction in the coming month.
Beyond technical signals, analyst James Van Straten also highlighted another divergence between MicroStrategy (MSTR) stock price and Bitcoin.
According to the chart, in November 2021, MSTR dropped about 50% from its previous peak while Bitcoin recorded a new all-time high of $69,000. A similar situation is currently unfolding. MSTR has completed a 50% drop from its late 2024 peak, but Bitcoin continues to record new highs above $111,000.
James did not provide a definitive conclusion, but this signal suggests a Bitcoin correction or even a reversal, similar to what was observed in the 2021-2022 cycle.
"Bitcoin has had another strong month, but cracks are forming beneath the surface. Increasing divergence between price movements, volatility, and retail behavior suggests the cycle may be changing. Key players like MicroStrategy are reducing purchases, and major altcoins are falling below critical support levels. Volume is decreasing, momentum is weakening, and technical signals are very similar to 2021, right before the situation changed." – 10x Research report.
Despite these warning signals, BeInCrypto has reported that companies outside the cryptocurrency sector are buying Bitcoin in large quantities. From gaming to healthcare and retail, various sectors are purchasing Bitcoin. Bitwise predicts that institutional capital inflow could reach $426.9 billion by 2026 and potentially lock up 20% of Bitcoin's total supply.
This new momentum could represent a significant difference between the 2025 and 2021 markets. A direct comparison between the two periods could be misleading.
