A liquidity crisis possibility for Bitcoin is being raised. According to Crypto Quant data, the Bitcoin held by exchanges has sharply decreased from 2.75 million BTC to 2.43 million BTC since the beginning of 2023.
The fact that 300,000 BTC has left exchanges over 18 months is noteworthy. This generally means long-term holders are transferring to cold wallets, but its impact on the market remains uncertain amid the recent bearish market.
Bitcoin is currently trading at $104,600, but is showing bearish signals with decreased trading volume after recording a peak near $110,000. Technical analysis suggests that if the $103,972 level breaks, there is a possibility of falling to the $90,000 range.
Theoretically, a decrease in exchange holdings should lead to reduced selling pressure and become a price increase factor, but analysis suggests it could lead to weakness due to lack of demand.
In this situation, two scenarios are proposed. First, if buying pressure flows in, a sharp increase could occur due to supply shortage. Second, a potential structural collapse due to institutional investor withdrawal.
Currently, technical indicators suggest a higher likelihood of decline. While trading above the 26-day moving average, additional decline seems inevitable if this line is broken.
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