Author: @BlazingKevin_, the Researcher at Movemaker
The Starting Point of Bitcoin's Structural Slow Bull Market Has Formed
I believe we are at the beginning of a long-cycle, even a decade-spanning slow bull market for Bitcoin. Phenomenally, the key turning point driving this trend is the approval of Bitcoin ETF at the end of 2023. From that moment, Bitcoin's market attributes began to fundamentally change, gradually transforming from a pure risk asset to a safe-haven asset. Currently, Bitcoin is in the early stage of becoming a safe-haven asset, and it coincides with the United States entering a rate-cutting cycle, thus providing a favorable growth space. Bitcoin's role in asset allocation is shifting from a "speculative object" to an "asset allocation tool", stimulating long-term demand increments.
This asset attribute evolution happens precisely at a monetary policy turning point about to shift from tight to loose. The Federal Reserve's rate-cutting cycle is not an abstract macroeconomic background, but a funding price signal that substantially impacts Bitcoin.
Under this mechanism, Bitcoin will exhibit a new operational characteristic: whenever market sentiment overheats and shows signs of correction, approaching the edge of a bear market, a wave of "liquidity" will enter, interrupting the downward trend. We often say that "liquidity is abundant but unwilling to bet", which is not entirely accurate. Other cryptocurrency assets lack mid-term allocation logic due to evaporating valuation and unimplemented technology; at this moment, Bitcoin becomes the "only definitive asset to bet on". Therefore, as long as easing expectations persist and ETFs continue to attract funds, Bitcoin will find it extremely difficult to form a traditional bear market during the entire rate-cutting cycle, at most experiencing periodic adjustments or local bubble clearing due to sudden macro events like tariff impacts or geopolitical hedging.
This means Bitcoin will traverse the entire rate-cutting cycle as a "quasi-safe-haven asset", and its price anchoring logic will correspondingly change—gradually transitioning from "risk preference driven" to "macro certainty supported". Once this rate-cutting cycle ends, with time passing, ETF maturation, and increased institutional allocation weights, Bitcoin will complete its initial transformation from a risk asset to a safe-haven asset. Next, when the next rate-hiking cycle begins, Bitcoin will likely be truly trusted by the market as a "safe harbor during rate hikes" for the first time. This will not only enhance its allocation status in traditional markets but may also potentially attract fund inflow from competition with traditional safe-haven assets like gold and bonds, thus initiating a structural slow bull market spanning decades.
Rather than looking too far ahead to Bitcoin's development in multiple years or even a decade, let's first examine the potential triggers that might cause significant Bitcoin drops before the United States truly turns to consistent easing. From the first half of this year, tariffs are undoubtedly the most market sentiment-disrupting event, but in reality, if we view tariffs as a benign adjustment tool for Bitcoin, we might gain a different perspective on its potential future impacts. Secondly, the GENIUS bill's passage marks the United States' acceptance of the inevitable decline of the dollar's status and actively embracing crypto financial development, amplifying the dollar's multiplier effect on-chain.
Viewing Tariffs as a Benign Bitcoin Adjustment Tool, Not a Black Swan Trigger
... [rest of the text continues]First, it must be acknowledged that the trend of global economic multi-polarization is reshaping the relative necessity of the US dollar. In the previous globalization paradigm, the United States, as a center for technology, institutions, and capital export, naturally held discourse power, thereby promoting the US dollar as the default anchor currency for global trade and financial activities. However, with the rapid development of other economies, especially the growth of financial self-organizing systems in Asia and the Middle East, this single settlement mechanism centered on the US dollar is gradually facing competition from alternative choices. The traditional global liquidity advantage and settlement monopoly of the US dollar have begun to be eroded. The decline in US dollar control does not equate to a collapse in status, but its "uniqueness" and "necessity" are being weakened.
The second important dimension stems from the credit overdraft trend demonstrated by the United States in its fiscal and monetary operations in recent years. While past credit expansion and US dollar issuance have occurred before, in the digital age with higher global market synchronization, its side effects have been significantly amplified. Especially when the traditional financial order has not yet fully adapted to the new growth model driven by digital economy and AI, the inertia of US financial governance tools is evident.
The US dollar is no longer the only asset carrier that can provide global clearing and value storage, and its role is gradually being diluted by diversified protocol-based assets. The rapid evolution of the Crypto system is also forcing sovereign monetary systems to make strategic compromises. The oscillation between passive response and active adaptation further exposes the limitations of the traditional US dollar governance system. The passage of the GENIUS Act can be seen, to some extent, as a strategic response and institutional concession by the US federal system to this new era of financial logic.
In summary, the relative decline of traditional US dollar control is not a violent collapse, but more like a gradual institutional and structural dissolution. This dissolution comes from the multi-polarization of global financial power, the lag in the US financial governance model, and more fundamentally, the Crypto system's ability to reconstruct new financial tools, settlement paths, and monetary consensus. In such a transformation period, the credit logic and governance mechanisms on which the traditional US dollar depends need deep reshaping, and the GENIUS Act is a prelude to this reshaping, signaling not a simple tightening or expansion of regulation, but a fundamental transformation of monetary governance thinking.
The GENIUS Act is a Strategic Compromise of "Retreating to Advance"
[The translation continues in this manner for the entire text, maintaining the specified translations for specific terms.]Continuous Market Expectations in the Interest Rate Reduction Cycle Prevent Lagging Indicators from Triggering a "Bear Market".
After analyzing the impact of the above macroeconomic events and future trends, I will now return to some Bitcoin data indicators to try to find more evidence of Bitcoin's potential resilience. First, here's the conclusion I drew from the data: Continuous Market Expectations in the Interest Rate Reduction Cycle Prevent Lagging Indicators from Triggering a "Bear Market".
When observing Bitcoin's price trends, indicators can be divided into two categories based on their mechanism and timeliness: prior indicators and lagging indicators. Furthermore, market sentiment can be viewed as an intermediate variable connecting these two types of indicators, playing a catalytic role in triggering supply and demand conversion and accelerating trend reversal.
So-called prior indicators typically have a slower change rhythm and higher trend prediction capabilities. These indicators do not mean that prices will immediately reverse, but rather provide advance warning of potential structural opportunities, making them very suitable for "left-side positioning" - that is, the stage of low points where prices have not yet clearly bottomed out but structurally have the basis for a rebound.
In contrast, lagging indicators rely on the price path and trading behavior that the market has already gone through, used to confirm whether a trend is truly established. The core value of these indicators is trend verification; they are not used for prediction but as a reference for "trend-following" after the market has developed a certain trend.
From the previous four-year cycle to the current new market trajectory, many prior and lagging indicators have lost their judgment significance, essentially because the main holders of Bitcoin have shifted from whales to institutions. Therefore, indicators used in the previous cycle to judge bottoms and tops, such as miner shutdown prices, pool multiples, and NUPL, have begun to fail.
In Bitcoin's new buying cycle trajectory, we need to remove the concept of bull and bear market shifts from our minds, and instead use market sentiment's highs and lows as the basis for judging Bitcoin's stage-specific state.
Market sentiment is reflected by Bitcoin buyers, serving as the micro-dynamics between structural factors and price behavior, and the direct reason determining whether investors are willing to bet or collectively push price trends. No matter how extreme supply and demand are, if sentiment is not activated, prices may still remain flat; if sentiment quickly heats up, even with limited structural support, violent rebounds or sharp drops may occur. Therefore, market sentiment becomes an indispensable bridge variable connecting prior and lagging indicators, structural logic, and trading behavior. The reversal or extreme values of sentiment can be analyzed by observing the relationship between long-term holders (LTH) and short-term holders (STH).
Profit and Loss Ratio of Long-Term and Short-Term Holders
The profit and loss state conversion of LTH and STH often signals important market turning points. By observing changes in the long-term holders' profit and loss ratio (LTH-RPC), market bottom signals can be captured. When this indicator shows that long-term holders are generally starting to incur losses, it often means the market is approaching a stage-specific low point.
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