Regarding today's second round of consultations between China and the US in London, after the mid-May Geneva talks, the US continues to impose chip restrictions on China, while China implements rare earth export controls, forming a "Rare Earth VS Chips" game scenario. In this second round of consultations, US Commerce Secretary is participating, which may indicate that technology export controls "may no longer be a non-negotiable area" (this area falls under 's jurisdiction). Both sides have urgency in this second round of consultations: 1. The US is on the verge of rare earth supply disruption, with reports showing US car companies recently complaining about rare earth magnet shortages threatening factory shutdowns, and the US's only operating rare earth mine in California's Mountain Pass is forced to export rare earths to China for refinement. 2. While China still faces chip control challenges, the import and export slowdown caused by tariffs is even more critical: 1) Mainly due to dragging exports to the US. May exports to the US year-on-year were -34.5%, further expanding from the previous -21.0%. 2) China's monthly import and export in May at 4.8% year-on-year is not low; but slightly lower than Q1's 5.7% and April's 8.1%, with a month-on-month decline below the historical seasonal level, showing initial impacts of tariff and trade environment uncertainty. In this situation, both sides have motivations and urgency to negotiate. The possibility of reaching a further agreement in this second round of consultations is high. The final result ultimately depends on: How much room is there for further tariff rate reduction? The extent of chip and rare earth control relaxation by both sides (such as opening under quota systems or usage restrictions)?
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qinbafrank
@qinbafrank
05-12
中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明,如早上聊到的:核心就是暂停一部分、豁免一部分;建立常设沟通机制。 x.com/qinbafrank/sta…


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