Gold surpasses the euro to become the world's second largest official reserve, JPMorgan Chase sees $6,000

The European Central Bank (ECB) recently reported that, driven by record-breaking purchase volumes and soaring gold prices, gold accounted for 20% of global official reserves in 2024, surpassing the euro to become the world's second-largest official reserve. Emerging market countries are actively buying, with risk-averse sentiment and de-dollarization issues continuing to develop. JPMorgan predicts that gold prices could reach $6,000 by 2029. Bloomberg cited the ECB's recent report, indicating that gold occupied 20% of global official reserves in 2024, exceeding the euro's 16% and second only to the US dollar's 46%, propelled by record-breaking purchase volumes and gold price surges. Global central banks have been net purchasing over 1,000 tons of gold for the third consecutive year, at twice the average purchasing speed before 2022. The report shows that Poland, India, and China were the largest gold buyers in 2024. Central banks' gold accumulation reflects a defensive stance against geopolitical risks and financial sanctions, as well as the deepening trend of de-dollarization. Gold prices rose nearly 62% in 2024, further boosting its market value in reserve assets. It has also risen 30% this year, becoming one of the best-performing assets. Gold prices have been showing strong upward momentum, repeatedly hitting historical highs, mainly driven by geopolitical risks, global central bank gold purchases, US dollar trend fluctuations, and safe-haven demand. JPMorgan suggests that moving just 0.5% of US overseas assets to gold could potentially drive gold prices to $6,000 per ounce by 2029. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,700 per ounce, with expectations of reaching $4,000 by mid-next year.

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Inspiration from Music Radio: Software Should "Try Before Buying"

Jobs observed that consumers usually listen to music through radio before buying records, and he believed the software world should have a similar mechanism allowing users to "try" before purchasing. He called this a "software radio station":

This is a new way for users to experience content remotely before purchasing.

He believed this design not only enhances consumer trust but also solves the pain point of software purchasing, which heavily relied on packaging and marketing while lacking actual experience.

Rejecting Physical Constraints: A Revolution from Tape to Telephone Line

In that era, software distribution still depended on tapes, packaging boxes, and logistics. Jobs detailed this complex supply chain, from digital data encoded on polyester tapes, to boxing, transportation, shelving, selling, until user installation. He bluntly stated: "This is a long road."

He foresaw that software should be directly transmitted through telephone lines from one computer to another, completely eliminating physical media costs and time. This concept is now commonplace through network downloads and streaming.

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Predecessor of Freemium: Free Trial Will Lead Consumer Decisions

"30 seconds free experience", "provide five app preview images", "let you play for a day before deciding" - Jobs proposed these trial modes back then. He believed:

Once transmission technology breaks through, software can imitate music preview logic: use first, pay later.

This concept of "let users experience first, then decide whether to pay" is the prototype of today's "freemium" business model in app stores (like App Store), with free downloads, trial periods, and in-app purchases. This approach not only lowers user entry barriers but also opens up larger sales spaces for software companies, creating long-tail revenue opportunities.

One Card Number Solves It: Payment Experience Must Be Seamless

Beyond foreseeing software transmission and experience, Jobs progressively stated: "If you like it, just enter your Visa card number, and you can own it." Such a statement was almost fantastical at the time, yet identical to today's online payments, in-app purchases, and subscriptions.

He understood that simplifying the consumption process is key to truly popularizing digital content. This "experience, decision, payment" three-step integration constructed the core of today's digital business model.

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Not Predicting Future Technology, But Behavior Patterns

Jobs was not just predicting future technology at the technical level, but approached from human behavior and consumer psychology, outlining the entire industry's evolution direction. His conceived "software radio station" coincides with today's platforms like App Store, Steam, Netflix, and Spotify.

As he said, technology's meaning has never been just invention, but redefining how people access and use information. This 1983 speech was not just a display of foresight, but a map of the industry drawn decades in advance.