Is the macro trend turning bullish? 10x Research: Key indicators show that Bitcoin is brewing a new round of rise

With rising oil prices, stable U.S. Treasury yields, and a more conservative stance from the Federal Reserve, the market is entering a highly cautious phase. Despite mixed economic signals, BTC's macro prospects are quietly showing signs of change. The latest chart from 10x Research reveals that a long-term reliable macro indicator has recently clearly turned bullish, potentially signaling a major market movement for BTC in the coming months.

Market Bullish and Bearish Signals Diverge, BTC Maintains Oscillation

Current market signals are mixed: on one hand, oil prices are rising and bond yields remain strong, while on the other, U.S. employment market data is weak and the Federal Reserve's attitude is becoming more cautious. BTC price has been consolidating narrowly around the $106,000 key level over the past month, with a range fluctuation of only ±4%. This consolidation pattern, though seemingly calm, may be laying the foundation for a breakthrough.

Capital Rotation Signals Emerge, Altcoin Funds Suspected to Shift Towards BTC

As capital demand for mainstream Altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT) declines, some institutions may have quietly shifted asset allocations towards BTC. This not only enhances BTC's hedging attributes as digital gold but also reflects market confidence in BTC's medium to short-term trend.

Key Macro Indicators Turn Bullish, BTC Looks Promising in Medium to Long Term

According to 10x Research data, the macro technical indicator previously considered a BTC bullish-bearish watershed has recently flipped from the "bearish zone" to the "bullish zone". Similar turning points in the past often accompanied significant BTC price surges. Although short-term market sentiment remains cautious, this signal may significantly increase the possibility of a BTC breakthrough in the second half of the year.

FOMC Shows No Dovish Intention, Fed Stance May Suppress Short-term Momentum

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a neutral stance at this week's FOMC meeting and is unlikely to signal an expansionary policy. This means BTC lacks direct short-term momentum. Additionally, the risk of rising 10-year Treasury yields may limit further capital flow into risk assets, even with a weakening labor market.

Geopolitical Risks Ease, but Short-term Consolidation Difficult to Break

The conflict risk between Israel and Iran is gradually receding, and its impact on BTC is expected to diminish. However, due to the lack of new catalysts and low summer liquidity, BTC may continue to consolidate in the short term. From a technical perspective, as long as the price remains above $100,437, the pullback space will be relatively limited.

Although the short-term market is constrained by macroeconomic conditions and the Fed's stance, technical and capital flow indicators suggest that BTC's medium to long-term potential is brewing. This is often the moment most easily overlooked by the market, and such silence is often a prelude to a major market movement. The key support is established, and now we await the trigger point for a breakthrough.

Japanese version of MicroStrategy, Metaplanet, announced that it has issued zero-coupon corporate bonds totaling $210 million and will invest all raised funds in BTC purchases. Despite BTC recently falling to 105K, Metaplanet's stock price continues to hit historical highs, closing at 1,770 yen, up 17.3% daily and an impressive 17.5 times in the past year. The NAV premium, used to assess the relationship between its stock price and BTC value, has now reached 8.427 times.

(New Investment Opportunity in Bitcoin Enterprises! Comprehensive Analysis of Japan's Metaplanet Investment)

Metaplanet Continues to Issue Zero-Interest Bonds to Buy BTC

According to Metaplanet's announcement, each bond has a face value of $5 million, with a total issuance of $210 million. Although these are bonds, they do not pay any interest and have no collateral or guarantor. The debt will be redeemed on December 12, 2025, or can be redeemed early at the request of the investor EVO FUND.

This is the "18th Ordinary Corporate Bond" issued by Metaplanet, with the bond issuance limited to a single institution called EVO FUND.

(Metaplanet Issues $21 Million Zero-Interest Bonds Just to Buy BTC! What's Behind This Financial Trick?)

Metaplanet Buys Another 1,112 BTC

Metaplanet subsequently announced that it has acquired 1,112 BTC at a price of approximately $117.2 million, with an average cost of $105,435. The BTC yield as of 2025 has reached 266.1%. As of June 16, 2025, Metaplanet has held 10,000 BTC, spending a total of $947 million, with an average cost of $94,697 per BTC. It appears that the original plan to accumulate 10,000 BTC by the end of the year has been achieved ahead of schedule!

Metaplanet recently announced a special shareholders' meeting on September 1st, raising questions about potential new financial targets.

Metaplanet Stock Price Now 8 Times Higher Than BTC Value

Since launching its BTC investment strategy in April 2024, Metaplanet has employed various financial instruments to support this goal, planning to accumulate 10,000 BTC by the end of this year and 21,000 BTC by 2026.

Metaplanet has developed a clear financial plan, including future stock warrants across 5 batches totaling 21 million shares. Benefiting from Japan's tax system and advantages for retail and institutional investors, the NAV premium used to assess its stock price relative to BTC value has remained consistently high. As shown in the chart, the NAV premium once reached 21 times, with a minimum of nearly 2 times. Currently, the value is 8.427 times.

Metaplanet Stock Price Continues to Hit New Highs, Up 17.5 Times in a Year

Despite BTC recently falling to $105K, Metaplanet's stock price continues to hit historical highs, closing at 1,770 yen, up 17.3% in a single day and an impressive 17.5 times in the past year.