Uber and Airbnb reshape VC play. One article to understand a16z founder Andreessen's venture capital logic

Renowned Silicon Valley venture capitalist Mark Andreessen from a16z stated in an interview on 6/12 that the venture capital game has been completely upgraded. He said that companies selling software through the Software as a Service (SaaS) model and collecting subscription fees will have slim chances of survival in the future, and Full Stack Startups are now the main focus.

He further pointed out the brutal fact in the venture capital world: truly profitable venture capital firms actually have a higher tolerance for failure because they dare to double down on projects that initially seem crazy. The market size is just a formality, and the strength of the founders is the key to success.

[Rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and meaning] The last paragraph about Bitcoin's macro prospects would be translated as: With rising oil prices, stable US bond yields, and a more conservative stance from the US Federal Reserve, the market is entering a highly cautious phase. Despite mixed economic signals, Bitcoin's macro prospects are quietly showing signs of change. The latest chart from 10x Research reveals that a long-term reliable macro indicator has recently clearly turned bullish, potentially signaling a significant market movement for Bitcoin in the coming months.

Market Bullish and Bearish Signals Diverge, Bitcoin Maintains Oscillating Consolidation

Currently, market news is mixed: on one hand, oil prices are rising and bond yields remain strong, while on the other hand, the US job market data is weak and the Federal Reserve's attitude is becoming more cautious. Bitcoin's price has been consolidating within a narrow range around the $106,000 key price level over the past month, with a range fluctuation of only ±4%. Although this consolidation pattern seems calm, it may be laying the foundation for a breakthrough.

Capital Rotation Signs Emerge, Altcoin Funds Suspected to Shift Towards Bitcoin

As the funding demand for mainstream Altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and Polkadot (DOT) declines, some institutions may have quietly shifted their asset allocation to Bitcoin. This not only enhances Bitcoin's hedging attributes as digital gold but also reflects the market's relative confidence in Bitcoin's trend in the medium to short term.

Key Macro Indicators Turn Bullish, Bitcoin Looks Promising in Medium and Long Term

According to 10x Research data, macro technical indicators previously considered the dividing line between Bitcoin's bullish and bearish sentiments have recently flipped from the "bearish zone" to the "bullish zone". Similar turning points in the past were often accompanied by significant Bitcoin price increases. Although short-term market sentiment remains cautious, this signal may significantly increase the possibility of Bitcoin breaking through in the second half of the year.

FOMC Shows No Dovish Intention, Fed Stance May Suppress Short-term Momentum

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is expected to maintain a neutral stance at this week's FOMC meeting and is unlikely to signal an easing policy, which means Bitcoin lacks direct momentum in the short term. Additionally, the risk of rising 10-year Treasury bond yields remains, and even with a weakening labor market, this may limit further capital flow into risk assets.

Geopolitical Risks Ease, but Consolidation Pattern Difficult to Break in Short Term

The conflict risk between Israel and Iran is gradually receding, and its impact on Bitcoin is expected to gradually diminish. However, due to the lack of new catalysts and low summer liquidity, Bitcoin may continue to maintain an oscillating consolidation pattern in the short term. From a technical perspective, as long as the price remains above $100,437, the pullback space will be relatively limited.

Although the short-term market is still constrained by the overall economic situation and the Fed's stance, both technical and funding aspects indicate that Bitcoin's medium to long-term potential is brewing. This is often the moment most easily overlooked by the market, and such silence is often a harbinger of a major market movement. The key support has been established, and now we await the trigger point for a breakthrough.