Over the past week (June 9-15), the Bitcoin market continued its adjustment, showing a weak pattern under multi-cycle resonance. While technical aspects released clear weakening signals, the macro level also entered a highly sensitive window - the Federal Reserve's policy path and economic data increasingly directly impact market sentiment, and coupled with the "Financial Quadruple Witching Day" causing fund disruptions, short-term market trends are likely to experience intense volatility.
This article will systematically analyze the current Bitcoin technical structure, sentiment changes, and macro game logic from multiple dimensions, assessing potential paths and key operational strategies for the upcoming week.
I. Confirmed Weekly Top Divergence, Momentum Inflection Point Forming
This round of Bitcoin rebound briefly peaked at $112,345 in early June, creating a new yearly high. However, from the weekly momentum quantitative model, this high point did not obtain synchronized momentum indicator support (such as RSI, Stochastic, Mom), instead showing a clear top divergence structure: while prices reached a new high, momentum indicators recorded a descending peak. This "strong price, weak momentum" situation often signals imminent exhaustion of upward momentum, becoming an early trend reversal indicator.
More importantly, trading volume simultaneously shrank. When challenging the key resistance above $110,000, volume was significantly lower than during previous upward stages, indicating a lack of sustained buying support, and "high price without volume" is difficult to maintain trend continuation. The 5-week moving average completely turned downward this week, with prices closing below it for two consecutive weeks, signaling destruction of the medium-term upward trend.
Overall, the triple signals of weekly top divergence + momentum exhaustion + moving average breakdown constitute the primary basis for Bitcoin's weakening technical structure.
II. Clear Short Structure on Daily Line, 100-Day Moving Average as Key Support
From the daily level, after the death cross, MACD's DIFF and DEA continue descending above the 0-axis, with green momentum bars gradually expanding, indicating accumulating short-side energy. Additionally, sentiment indicators currently remain in the oversold zone above 80, with lines stagnating and unable to surge, suggesting potential price correction.
Bitcoin has clearly broken below the 20-day moving average this week, with subsequent rebounds failing to stabilize. Technically, the next key support will look to the 100-day moving average area (around $100,300). This position not only provides moving average support for daily multi-short division but also resonates with historical dense chip areas and previous platform structures, offering strong technical support.
If prices find support at this level accompanied by short-term bottom divergence signals, a local rebound may form. However, if breaking this line with further downward closing prices, a new medium-term downward exploration might commence, potentially retesting the $98,000 area, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the Q1 2025 wave start.
III. Weak Oscillation on Hourly Line, Channel Resistance Unbroken
From the short-cycle 1-hour chart, BTC experienced a short-term rebound from the Friday low of $102,664, mainly benefiting from hourly RSI's double bottom divergence, coupled with technical overselling triggering short-term long entry. However, this rebound lacks volume support, with green candles showing reduced volume and red candles expanding, indicating the rebound is more technical repair than trend reversal.
Prices currently remain within a clear descending channel, with rebounds approaching the channel's upper rail (around $107,500) before being repelled. If unable to break through this resistance with volume in the coming trading days, BTC will likely maintain channel oscillation and further explore previous low supports.
IV. Sentiment Indicators Release Secondary Divergence, Market Divergence Intensifies
Beyond price and momentum divergence, sentiment structure also releases cautionary signals. Using a proprietary sentiment indicator, when prices challenged $112,345, the sentiment indicator reached 8.2, breaking the historical 7.5 oversold extreme, triggering the "extreme greed" zone.
However, this week's price rebound to $110,530 failed to restore sentiment, peaking only at 6.5, forming a secondary top divergence, further verifying reduced internal market driving force. Simultaneously, observing multi-short sentiment difference, short sentiment bars continue expanding, market divergence intensifying, indicating significantly weakened long-side confidence with increasing hold and short positions.
V. Macro Variables Enter High-Sensitivity Interval: Federal Reserve, Retail Sales, Triple Disruption of Quadruple Witching Day
Beyond technical aspects, Bitcoin will face several key macro variable impacts next week affecting market sentiment and capital flow.
1. US May Retail Sales (month-on-month) to be announced on June 17. Significantly exceeding expectations (market expects +0.3%) will intensify inflation stickiness concerns, potentially triggering market repricing of "higher, longer" interest rate paths, pressuring risk asset valuations. Conversely, weak data might boost rate cut expectations, bringing short-term positive momentum.
2. Powell to attend Congressional hearing on June 18. Maintaining a hawkish tone, reaffirming "more inflation evidence needed for rate cuts" could strengthen the US dollar, pressuring BTC; any dovish signals (e.g., rising unemployment potentially triggering easing considerations) might quickly stimulate a crypto market temporary rebound.
3. US stock market "Quadruple Witching Day" on June 20, involving concentrated stock index futures and options expiration. This event often accompanies sudden liquidity changes and volatility spikes. Considering crypto market's high-frequency linkage with US stocks, Bitcoin may passively follow oscillations, increasing operational difficulty.
Additionally, ETF fund flows and institutional holdings warrant close tracking. Consecutive three-day net inflows exceeding $200 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs might form support; significant outflows could trigger structural adjustments.
VI. Strategy Summary and Operational Guidance
Overall, against the backdrop of weakening technical structure and escalating macro disruptions, Bitcoin's short-term trend remains biased towards weak oscillation. Operations should prioritize defense and maintain strategic flexibility. Specific recommendations:
Short-term rebounds not exceeding $107,500 area, selectively short with light positions, stop loss set above $108,300.
If breaking $103,000 with volume, maintain observation, await potential bottoming signals near $100,300.
If falling below $98,000 accompanied by sentiment panic and technical overselling, consider small position tentative bottom-fishing, using tight stop losses to control risk.
Reduce positions to under 50% before June 17 to prevent high volatility impacts from data and speeches.
To cope with black swan events, utilize 5% of funds to layout put options for hedging and improve the risk-reward ratio.
VII. Conclusion: Waiting for the True "Cleansing Completion" Signal
In the short term, Bitcoin is experiencing a transition from "emotional overheating" to "neutral adjustment", but has not yet completed a full technical pattern recovery. Only when the price completes sufficient range and time consolidation, and shows bottom divergence + volume stop loss + multi-cycle synchronized strengthening at key support levels, can the current adjustment be declared over.
Before this, any rebound without volume support, emotional repair, and macroeconomic coordination will be viewed as an escape opportunity during the rebound. Prudent investors should patiently wait for a building opportunity with "price, momentum, sentiment, and capital" four-dimensional resonance.
Author: BitpushNews Cody Feng
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