ASR-VC 4h Channel Update: Currently, the $BTC 4h channel has completely flattened out, and price volatility is decreasing. Typically, this signals a consolidation phase. The lower blue mini-consolidation triangle in the referenced chart was briefly broken, but price quickly reclaimed it with a retest, and the spot premium index moved up. This means spot buyers started scooping up around 103k... Q: Long or short, what’s the move? A: Price is still ranging below the midline, so the structure is still slightly bearish. Even though price has been bouncing around the midline, as it gets closer and closer to it, the market is clearly prepping for a breakout. So, mechanically: below the midline, lean bearish; above the midline, lean bullish. ============================== Q: Is there still a shot at that 102k liquidation wick + V-reversal we were hoping for? A: At this point, only an event-driven move could trigger that kind of price action. With US stocks closed on Thursday and thinner liquidity, if something major happens in the Middle East, we might see another liquidation leg down—so if you’re looking to buy the dip or take profits on shorts, you’ll have to rely on Trump-style chaos... If nothing like that happens, expect low-volume chop and a slow grind up—no real V-reversal opportunities on low timeframes. ============================== Q: I’m stuck in a long, what should I do? A: Simple—set your stop loss below the green demand zone on the chart. As long as that demand holds, we’ll likely keep ranging within this $10k band, so there’s still a shot to get out of your long. ============================== Q: How much longer is this boring chop going to last? A: We’re still in a textbook range. My base case is that this low-volume consolidation will end with volatility ramping up. In other words, if we see a small dip first, expect a big pump after—and vice versa, if price fakes out above the range, it’s likely to become a distribution zone and flip bearish. TL;DR: After prolonged low-vol chop, if price pumps first, a dump follows; if it dumps first, a pump follows. ============================== Q: When can I get out of my 90k short? A: Conservatively, I’d say July–August... Price might chop above 100k longer than most expect, but as long as we’re under 126k, the odds are pretty high this is a long-term distribution range.