TL;DR
Macro data shows that U.S. inflation has signs of easing but remains above the Federal Reserve's target. The labor market is generally stable, consumer spending is slowing due to high interest rates, and the Fed maintains its cautious stance on rate cuts. Meanwhile, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have intensified market volatility. Although the resumption of economic and trade dialogue between the U.S. and China provided a brief boost, global economic prospects are under pressure, and future market trends will be influenced by rate cut expectations and international situation changes.
The crypto market trading volume remains active but with weakening momentum, with funds becoming cautious due to geopolitical risks. Market capitalization declined by 4.03% quarter-on-quarter, with capital focus clearly returning to BTC. ETH and stablecoins performed steadily. Newly listed tokens are primarily concentrated in DeFi and Layer1 tracks, with VC-supported projects still dominating, and hot topics mainly driven by sentiment.
Despite geopolitical risks and the Fed's hawkish stance pressuring market sentiment and causing Bitcoin and Ethereum prices to fall, Bitcoin spot ETF still saw $1.13 billion in net inflows, while Ethereum experienced net outflows of about $80 million due to a larger price drop, reflecting increased short-term risk-averse sentiment. Meanwhile, driven by stablecoin legislation and Circle's listing, the stablecoin market continues to expand, with total circulation growing by approximately $4.17 billion in June.
On June 22, after Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran, Bitcoin strongly rebounded, breaking through $108,000. Consecutive ETF net inflows reflect institutional bullish sentiment, with technical indicators showing bulls regaining momentum. In the short term, it may challenge the historical high of $111,980. Ethereum and Solana also simultaneously rebounded. If they break through key moving average resistance, further upside potential may open up; otherwise, they might return to a consolidation pattern.
Circle successfully went public and benefited from the GENIUS Act, driving the stablecoin sector stronger. However, its valuation heavily depends on interest rate spread income, with long-term sustainability still to be observed. Virtual gained significant early user profits through an innovative token launch mechanism on the Base ecosystem, but its popularity waned after the "green lock mechanism" restricted liquidity, with token prices dropping over 30% from its peak.
Pumpfun's token auction, valued at $4 billion, was again postponed. Coupled with platform trust crisis and ecosystem doubts, the market remains divided on whether it can bring structural breakthroughs. Coinbase is advancing Base chain integration with its main application, while JPMorgan is piloting the "deposit token" JPMD, signaling traditional institutions and centralized platforms are accelerating their layout in on-chain dollars and compliant stablecoin tracks.
In June, the escalation of Middle East geopolitical risks + the Federal Reserve's "hawkish" stance led to a decline in market risk appetite, causing Bitcoin market sentiment to be under pressure, with prices showing a downward oscillating trend. Bitcoin price dropped from $105,649 to $100,987, a decline of about 4.41%. Although the subsequent temporary ceasefire between Iran and Israel caused a price pullback, the market remains influenced by war risks. Bitcoin spot ETF funds continue to maintain a net inflow trend, reflecting traditional investors' confidence in long-term value, with a cumulative net inflow of approximately $1.13 billion in June.
ETH ETF outflowed $80 million in June
For Ethereum, the price decline was more significant after being affected by the war. ETH price dropped from $2,536 at the beginning of the month to $2,228, a decline of 12.1%. Correspondingly, Ethereum spot ETF funds experienced net outflows, indicating increased short-term risk-averse sentiment, with a cumulative net outflow of about $80 million in June.
[The rest of the translation follows the same professional and accurate approach, maintaining the original structure and technical terminology.]In June 2025, the US Senate passed the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act" with an overwhelming majority (68:30), marking a historic step in cryptocurrency regulation. The bill imposes strict compliance requirements on stablecoin issuers: including 1:1 USD or short-term US Treasury reserve, monthly audits, prohibition of interest-bearing stablecoins, and allowing only bank subsidiaries, federal or specific state-authorized entities to issue. The bill explicitly brings stablecoins under the Bank Secrecy Act's regulation, establishing their legal status as "digital currency" and is seen as an important milestone in promoting digital asset mainstream adoption. Circle, Coinbase, and other domestic platforms are direct beneficiaries, with Circle's market value surging 35% after the bill's passage, while Tether faces multiple compliance challenges regarding audit qualifications and reserve structure.
Although the bill is still pending House voting and presidential signature, Trump has publicly endorsed it on social media, calling it the "foundational infrastructure of the digital dollar". Overall, the passage of the "GENIUS Act" is both a strategic move by the US to compete for digital currency leadership and potentially a bellwether for global stablecoin regulation, with the stablecoin market expected to experience explosive growth, and the US financial system accelerating towards a more digital and globalized new era.
3.Virtual: Pumpfun+Bn Alpha issuance mechanism ignites market heat
Virtual is undoubtedly one of the most market-focused projects recently. By leveraging an innovative issuance mechanism, it quickly attracted significant capital and user participation, becoming the core representative of Base ecosystem token issuance narrative. VIRTUAL's price rose from $0.5 in mid-April to a high of $2.5 in early June, a 400% increase. Virtual's token issuance core advantages include:
Extremely low financing price:Each new project raises funds with a market value of 42,425 virtual tokens (worth $224,000), allowing users to participate at extremely low prices with massive potential profit after project launch.
Linear token unlocking:Unlike MEME on PumpFun, Virtual's token issuance projects do not fully unlock after opening, but have a transparent token economic model with phased unlocking similar to VC tokens. Additionally, to prevent project team dumping, raised funds are not directly given to the project team but fully injected into the initial liquidity pool.
Low issuance risk:If a user's participated project fails to raise funds, the full amount will be refunded. Virtual only launches a few projects per day, ensuring higher quality and significantly lower user participation risk.
Reduced project rug probability:Virtual sets a 1% fee, with 70% returned to the project team, creating an incentive model that motivates project teams to enhance trading activity rather than short-term cash-out, forming a virtuous ecological loop.
However, as platform popularity increased, early users frequently obtained short-term high returns by selling immediately after token launch, causing significant selling pressure on new projects and disrupting ecosystem stability. To address this, Virtual introduced a "green lock mechanism" in mid-June, imposing mandatory lock-up periods on token issuance users during which tokens cannot be sold, with non-compliance resulting in suspension of point accumulation. While this mechanism helps suppress early selling and extend project lifecycle, it significantly alters the original speculative logic. User profit cycles are forcibly extended, reducing capital efficiency and causing a periodic market enthusiasm decline. Virtual's price entered a downward trend in mid-June, falling from its peak to $1.69, a drop of over 37%.
6. Next Month Outlook
1.Pumpfun: $4 billion valuation token auction again postponed
The Pumpfun token auction originally scheduled for late June has been further delayed, currently expected in mid-July. This is multiple postponements since the token issuance was first proposed last year. Pumpfun plans to raise $1 billion at a $4 billion fully diluted valuation (FDV) and plans to airdrop 10% of tokens for community incentives.
Since its launch, Pumpfun has generated approximately $700 million in revenue through low fees and bonding curve mechanisms, becoming one of the most profitable projects on Solana. However, its ecosystem faces multiple trust challenges including bot trading proliferation, product innovation stagnation, and unclear fund usage. In mid-June, the platform and founder's social accounts were banned on X, triggering false rumors about "regulatory intervention" and "founder arrest", further amplifying market doubts. Whether this high-valuation fundraising can bring structural breakthroughs to the Solana ecosystem or become another capital harvesting event remains controversial.
2.Coinbase advances Base chain integration, JPMorgan pilots "deposit tokens"
Coinbase is currently promoting deep integration of the Base chain into its main application, having launched Coinbase Verified Pools, allowing KYC users to directly interact with Base DApps using Coinbase account balances without complex wallet switching and on-chain transfer processes. Uniswap and Aerodrome have been announced as DEX platforms for on-chain trading. Although the feature is in early stages, this direction aligns with the current trend of centralized exchanges promoting on-chain and off-chain integration. For example, Binance uses the Alpha system to enable exchange users to directly purchase on-chain tokens; Bybit launched Byreal to provide its users with DeFi functionality for trading on-chain hot tokens and Solana assets. A one-stop trading experience between centralized exchanges and on-chain trading has become an important direction for platform evolution.
Simultaneously, JPMorgan is piloting "deposit tokens" JPMD on the Base chain as a compliant digital dollar tool for institutions, backed by bank deposits and restricted to permissioned use. From an industry perspective, Coinbase and Base's combination strengthens its compliant chain positioning and entry-level advantages. If future application-level integration is achieved, it could significantly expand the on-chain active user base. JPMorgan's pilot reflects the positive impact of the "GENIUS Stablecoin Act", with traditional institutions beginning to layout the on-chain dollar track. Under the current trend of gradually relaxing policies, this might inject new variables into the compliant stablecoin competitive landscape. Both can be viewed as important signals of the "centralized institutions and on-chain ecosystem" trend, warranting close attention to their subsequent scaled implementation pace and policy interaction effects.
