Jessy, Jinse Finance
On July 3rd Eastern Time, the U.S. macroeconomic landscape continued to show positive signs, with the "Big and Beautiful" bill passing the House of Representatives; non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, with the June unemployment rate unexpectedly dropping to 4.1%; multiple economic indicators also performed excellently, such as the U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI reporting 50.8, higher than the expected 50.5, with a previous value of 49.9. The U.S. June ISM Non-Manufacturing New Orders Index reported 51.3, also higher than the expected 48.2, with a previous value of 46.4. Additionally, U.S. industrial goods orders increased by 8.2% month-on-month in May, the largest increase since 2014; U.S. May factory orders excluding defense increased by 7.5% month-on-month, significantly higher than the previous value of -4.2%.
Stimulated by these macroeconomic positive news, the three major stock indices opened high and closed with gains across the board. Bitcoin also rose above 110,000 again. Voices of "bull market return" and "targeting 200,000 by year-end" have resurfaced. Is massive liquidity truly coming? Can crypto assets catch this windfall?
U.S. Economy Shows Strong Recovery, Rate Cut Expectations Temporarily Cool Down
This year, most expected the Federal Reserve to start rate cuts in July or September. However, the latest series of economic data suggests that the U.S. economy remains resilient and has not yet entered a stage of "rate cut necessity".
June non-farm employment added 147,000 jobs, higher than the market expectation of 110,000, indicating continued active hiring. The unemployment rate dropped from 4.2% to 4.1%, a moderate decline that suggests the labor market has not weakened. Particularly, the significant surge in industrial goods orders and new order indices shows the U.S. manufacturing sector is recovering. Meanwhile, fiscal stimulus expectations are increasing, with the stablecoin bill and "Big and Beautiful" tax plan advancing, potentially releasing liquidity from the fiscal side.
Although current U.S. long-term inflation expectations remain anchored at 2%, the Federal Reserve believes trade and other policies still have high uncertainty, with tariff policies potentially raising import goods prices, and its "second-round effect" might prolong price pressure and intensify short-term inflation.
The Federal Reserve's concerns about short-term inflation and the demonstration of economic resilience have lowered the expectation of a July rate cut. However, a September rate cut remains a high-probability event. Firstly, Trump has repeatedly pressured the Federal Reserve, emphasizing that high interest rates lead to excessive U.S. debt interest burden, stating "each 1% increase means an additional $200 billion in annual interest payments" and demanding rate cuts to 1%-2% to save fiscal expenditure. He also declared that if no rate cut occurs before September, he will push Congress to legislate to weaken the Federal Reserve's decision-making power. Under Trump's pressure, the market still holds high expectations for a September rate cut, with CME's "Fed Watch" showing only a 4.9% probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates in September.
Although June non-farm employment data exceeded expectations, government job positions abnormally surged in June, accounting for nearly half of new employment, contradicting Trump's "government streamlining" policy and raising suspicions of data manipulation. If employment data is not as strong as presented, economic pressure might be greater than surface-level, which would increase the likelihood of a September rate cut.
Moreover, Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated on July 1st that "rate cuts should have occurred if not for tariff policies". Additionally, Treasury Secretary Besson noted that "if no rate cut in July, September's cut might be larger". The market interprets these as the Federal Reserve "signaling" a September rate cut.
While July rate cut probability is low, a September rate cut remains highly probable. For Bitcoin and the crypto market, there won't be aggressive liquidity release in the short term, but being in a rate cut cycle means the bull market rhythm remains uninterrupted.
Will Bitcoin Reach 200,000 by Year-End?
In the current bull market rhythm, Nasdaq has already reached new highs. Bitcoin is oscillating around the 110,000 mark. Will Bitcoin truly reach 200,000 as everyone expects?
Bitcoin is no longer a retail investor's game; institutions now dominate this bull market. According to Bitcoin Treasuries data, as of July 4th, 2025, 255 entities hold Bitcoin, with approximately 3.562 million BTC, equivalent to 16.96% of the total 21 million issued.
Regarding Bitcoin spot ETFs, by the end of June, 11 U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs collectively held over 1.2 million BTC, about 6% of global supply, making Bitcoin increasingly scarce on exchanges. CryptoQuant data shows that by early July, Bitcoin reserves across centralized exchanges have dropped to just 2.44 million—the lowest since 2018, indicating more investors choose long-term holding over circulation. ETF inflows and institutions viewing Bitcoin as digital gold suggest Bitcoin might replicate gold's price trajectory after spot ETF introduction.
Technically, Bitcoin has repeatedly tested and found support around the 105,000 area, with daily and weekly charts in upward channels. If it breaks the 118,000-120,000 resistance, the next target could be the 135,000-150,000 region.
Bitcoin's continued upward channel appears open, though geopolitical conflicts or macro black swan events warrant caution.
As expectations for Bitcoin's rise continue to grow, is the "Altcoin season" approaching?
The author believes some independent Altcoins might see price increases, but a widespread surge is unlikely. Currently, U.S. stocks on-chain is trending, with major exchanges competing to launch RWA products, such as XStocks already listed on Bybit, Bitget, Kraken, Gate, and Solana chain DeFi products.
With numerous new attractions competing for funds and attention, most Altcoins likely have no comeback in this bull market.
In other words, a wild bull market is unlikely. This bull market appears more like a slow liquidity release and continuous institutional positioning. Overall, Bitcoin's return to 110,000 is a result of multiple positive factors, with this market cycle potentially being slower and more differentiated. For investors, earning money in this cycle requires strong macroeconomic trend judgment.
