This week will become the "most data-rich week of the year" in the United States. States. What major events are worth paying attention to in the next three days? What is the future trend of the crypto market?

I. Major Events in in the Next Three Days<2. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Meeting

At 00 time on the July 31, the Federal Reserve will announce its latest the latest interest rate resolution, and Powell will hold a monetary policy press conference.

On July 28, Trump stated that the Reserve cut rates. Trump said, "Even if no rate cut is made,, States is doing, but it will be better after a rate cut." Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's term ends in May 2026. The led Federal by Powell is unwilling to lower the benchmark interest rate from the current 4.25% to 4.50% target range to 1% as requested by Trump to reduce federal government borrowing costs. Trump is dissatisfied with this and has repeatedly threatened to make Powell "leave".

Nick Timiraos, the "Federal Reserve mouthpiece," wrote an article stating: Federal Reserve officials expect that they will ultimately need to continue cutting rates, but they are not yet ready to do so on Wednesday. Their disagreement lies in what evidence they first need to see and whether waiting for everything everything to become clear is a mistake. Officials are now split into three camps on whether to resume rate cuts. The focus will be whether Powell will provide any hints of September rate cut the press conference, and whether his colleagues will begin to lay the groundwork for rate cuts in the next few days and weeks.

Huatai Securities research report stated: Although Trump has pressured Powell to cut rates multiple times since the June meeting and some committee members have requested a July rate cut, considering the overall better-than-expected job market and future tariffs will gradually pass through to inflation, the Federal Reserve is likely to remain on hold in hold the July subsequent rate decisions will depend on economic data in July-August, and maintaining a job market will prompt the Federal Reserve's preventive rate cuts twice in September-December.

UBS Bank believes: The Federal Reserve may restart the rate cut cycle at the FOMC meeting. The weakening economic outlook means the Federal Reserve will implement a more relaxed monetary policy in the second half of the year. The uncertainty around inflation after tariff increases and political pressure from President Trump have hindered this month's rate cut. After July, private consumption stagnation plans reduced (indicating weakening demand will prove that reducing the restrictive policy stance is reasonable, despite inflation being above the target.

According to CME "Federal Reserve Watch": The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining rates unchanged in July is 96.9%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 3.1%. The probability of maintaining rates unchanged in September is 35.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 62.6%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 2.0%.

a rate cut expected is not, the continuous neutral tone in July, the rate cut result may have been basically digested by the market., dovish remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell could change market sentiment. If Powell hints at a possible rate cut in September,, the market may lead lead expectations and push Bitcoin to break through $$123,000 and create a new high.

<2. Trump's Tariff Policy

On August 1, Trump's new tariff measures will take hard effect.

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The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) issued the "Supervisory Guidelines for Licensed Stablecoin Issuers", "Guidelines on Anti-Money Laundering and Counter-Terrorist Financing (Applicable to Licensed Stablecoin Issuers)", and consultation conclusions for these two guidelines on July 29, which will be implemented from August 1, 2025. The two sets of guidelines will be gazetted on August 1, 2025. The HKMA simultaneously released a "Summary of Stablecoin Issuer Licensing Regime and Application Procedures" and a "Summary of Transitional Provisions for Existing Stablecoin Issuers". The HKMA stated that no licenses have been issued to date. They encourage institutions interested in applying for licenses to contact the HKMA by August 31, 2025, to receive regulatory expectations and appropriate feedback. Licensing will be an ongoing process, and individual institutions that believe they are fully prepared and wish to be considered early should submit applications to the HKMA by September 30, 2025.

Stablecoins are extremely hot in Hong Kong. HKMA Chief Executive Eddie Yue published an article titled "Stable and Far-Reaching Stablecoins" on July 23, warning against excessive hype and preventing financial risks. "We must prevent market and public opinion from over-hyping, and there are some phenomena worth our attention: first, over-conceptualization, but what is more worth our attention is the trend of bubble formation."

Everbright Securities released a research report stating that the global retail cross-border payment market size will reach $39.9 trillion in 2024. According to FXC Intelligence, this scale will increase to $64.5 trillion by 2032, with a compound annual growth rate of 6.2% from 2024 to 2032. In RMB cross-border clearing and multi-currency settlement businesses, third-party payment institutions are deeply embedded in the payment ecosystem, playing a crucial role. It is expected that stablecoins will drive the global expansion of RMB cross-border payment infrastructure and diversification of application scenarios, with promising revenue growth for third-party payment companies. In the long run, compliant stablecoin development has broad prospects, helping to standardize the stablecoin market, enhance investor confidence, and promote market expansion.

4. US Q2 GDP Data to be Released

The US Q2 GDP data will be released on July 30 local time.

Data released by the US Department of Commerce on Tuesday showed that the goods trade deficit in June narrowed by 10.8% from the previous month to $86 billion. The unadjusted data was lower than all economists' predictions in media surveys.

The latest US June goods trade data has prompted some economists to revise up their estimates for the US second-quarter GDP, which will be released on Wednesday. Analysts believe that the trade phenomenon that dragged down US GDP at the beginning of the year is expected to be basically reversed in the latest quarter.

According to the Atlanta Fed's real-time forecast, the GDP growth rate for Q2 2025 is 2.90% and 2.38%.

Goldman Sachs previously raised its Q2 GDP growth forecast from -0.3% to 2.4%, believing that the Q1 GDP data might have been underestimated.

Moody's Analytics predicts that the US full-year GDP will grow by 1.5% in 2025, but believes the Q2 data may be slightly higher, noting that the US economy will be in a "weak expansion" state.

If the US Q2 GDP data exceeds expectations, the economic improvement may boost investors' risk appetite, with some funds flowing into the crypto market.

5. Non-Farm Payrolls to be Released

The US non-farm payrolls data will be released on Friday local time.

The July non-farm report is expected to confirm that corporate hiring is becoming cautious. After the surge in education sector employment in June, this month's new employment is expected to slow down, with the unemployment rate potentially rising slightly to 4.2%. The US government's June personal income and expenditure report is expected to show that the Fed's preferred core inflation indicator will slightly accelerate month-on-month, indicating that tariffs are gradually being passed on to consumers.

Citi analysts in their latest research report noted that if the US labor market shows signs of weakness, it could trigger a more dovish reassessment of Fed expectations, driving a new round of US dollar decline and causing funds to seek new investment channels, thereby enhancing the attractiveness of cryptocurrencies. Citi expects July non-farm employment growth to slow to 100,000, with the unemployment rate potentially rising to 4.2%.

6. Tech Giant Earnings Season

Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon will release their earnings reports after market close on Wednesday and Thursday local time.

The four tech giants will release their earnings reports on Wednesday and Thursday this week. The performance of companies with a total market capitalization of $11.3 trillion will be a key test for the S&P 500 index to continue its rally. According to media data, among the approximately one-third of S&P 500 component companies that have already reported earnings, about 82% have exceeded profit expectations, potentially creating the best quarterly performance in nearly four years.

However, analysts have significantly lowered their expectations over the past few months, mainly due to concerns about the impact of tariffs on consumer spending and profit margins. Earnings forecasts for large tech companies have also been reduced. Data shows that the "Mag7" is expected to have a year-on-year earnings growth of 16% in the second quarter, lower than the 19% predicted at the end of March. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 index's year-on-year earnings growth is expected to be 4.5%, also lower than the 7.5% predicted in March.

If the earnings are good, it could drive overall market optimism, increase market activity, and potentially lead to more funds flowing into the crypto market. If earnings fall short of expectations, market confidence may be hit, with increased risk aversion potentially leading to funds moving to stable assets and outflows from the crypto market.

II. How Will the Future Crypto Market Develop?

Although the short-term market structure outlines a bullish recovery, the long-term pattern suggests that BTC's bullish momentum may be weakening. A Double Top pattern may appear near its historical high point, reflecting buyer fatigue. If it fails to break through the daily supply zone of $123,200, it will validate this bearish pattern, thereby hindering price discovery.

Bitcoin's daily Relative Strength Index has sharply dropped from 74.4 to 51.7, indicating spot market weakness, while daily trading volume has fallen to $8.6 billion, both suggesting declining market participation. Spot BTC ETF fund flows have also decreased by 80% from last week, dropping from $2.5 billion to $496 million, indicating cooling institutional investor interest.

Although futures open interest remains high at $45.6 billion, the increase in long-side funds suggests growing over-confidence. Additionally, 96.9% of the supply remains in profit, indicating a high likelihood of profit-taking.

August's historical return rates further confirm this view. Over 60% of funds closed at a loss in August, with an average return of 2.56%, meaning the upcoming month will face seasonal headwinds. Combined with weakening on-chain activity, such as declining active addresses and transfer volumes, BTC price may retrace in the coming weeks.

The latest research from on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant suggests that the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) has been growing in sync with BTC/USD, which may indicate a lack of investable stablecoin liquidity or "dry powder".

The author Arab Chain believes: "The rise of this indicator suggests that the volume of stablecoins is low compared to Bitcoin trading volume. In other words, liquidity is weak, thus the market lacks the purchasing power to support Bitcoin. The increase in this indicator and Bitcoin's price indicates that this rise is occurring without new stablecoins entering at the same rate. The continued rise of this indicator may suggest that future buying momentum could weaken due to low liquidity." The market may be entering a "temporarily saturated" period. "The market is still partially supported by liquidity, but Bitcoin's continued rise requires a significant increase in stablecoin reserves in the coming days."

Trader Crypto Tony predicts: "If Bitcoin can tighten and maintain above $117,000, I believe we will soon set a new all-time high."

Rekt Capital states: "Currently, BTC needs to avoid breaking through the top resistance of the bull flag, otherwise the price will remain within the range."

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