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After reviewing Microsoft and Meta's financial reports, I can't help but recall Lou Gerstner's quote "Who says elephants can't dance": Microsoft's second-quarter revenue reached a one-and-a-half-year high quarterly growth rate, with EPS profit growth accelerating to 24%, and Azure and other cloud services revenue unexpectedly growing 39%, reaching a two-and-a-half-year highest growth rate; Microsoft disclosed Azure revenue for the first time, with full-year revenue exceeding $75 billion, a 34% increase; second-quarter capital expenditure returned to quarter-on-quarter growth, unexpectedly increasing 13% to a record $24.2 billion. Meta's second-quarter revenue reached $47.5 billion, with earnings per share of $7.14, both significantly exceeding market expectations. Advertising revenue was strong, and Reality Labs' losses were lower than expected. The company anticipates third-quarter revenue between $47.5 billion and $50.5 billion, higher than market consensus, and has raised the lower limit of 2025 full-year capital expenditure from $64 billion to $66 billion. Both performance and AI investment outlook are strong. Both companies' U.S. stock profit growth rates are higher than revenue growth rates: Microsoft is 24% > 18%, Meta is 38% > 22%, indicating better growth quality. Meta's PEG is only 0.7, far below 1, showing a growth stock posture despite its large market value. The two key medium to long-term factors boosting U.S. stock fundamentals are: weakening U.S. dollar, capital expenditure deductions in the <大美丽法案>, and strategic profitable layoffs driven by AI cost reduction and efficiency improvements.

qinbafrank
@qinbafrank
07-29
聊聊从宏观看美股财报季的两个角度和影响业绩的三个中长期因素:这里不聊具体某家公司的财报表现,而是去看财报季所呈现的宏观视角。个人觉得主要有两方面: 1、从财报季看美国消费的真实表现如何。这里个人觉得代表性的四家公司是:美国银行、沃尔玛、costa、亚马逊。 x.com/qinbafrank/sta…
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