The yield curve is flashing a signal that strengthens Bitcoin’s core thesis.
Short-term rates are pinned. Long yields are spiking.
That’s not optimism, it’s the market worrying about U.S. debt sustainability.

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Japan's long-term government bond yield has recently surged to a historic high, with market concerns about capital repatriation and carry trade unwinding rapidly intensifying. If this trend continues, it could bring significant impacts on global capital flows, market stability, and even U.S. asset prices. Does this volatility in the Japanese bond market align with Arthur Hayes' long-standing Bitcoin advocacy?

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- Long-term bond yields hit record high, capital repatriation risk heats up
- Japanese bond yields rise, potentially triggering a massive global market shock
- ...

Bitcoin script being implemented? The surge in Japanese bond yields could trigger capital outflows from the United States and a retreat in carry trades

QCP analysis points out that due to stabilizing macroeconomic data and news sentiment, volatility of major asset classes continues to decline. U.S. Treasury yields slightly decreased, with 10-year and 30-year Treasury bonds falling below 4.5% and 5.0% respectively; Japan's 30-year government bond yield also dropped below 3%. The market is focusing on the U.S. long-term bond auction in June and Japan's 40-year JGB issuance today. Senator <Lummis>'s remarks on stablecoin and Bitcoin strategic reserves have attracted attention, with the market anticipating a restart of crypto policy advancement.

QCP: Asset volatility is declining, pay attention to the issuance of long-term bonds in the United States and Japan and the progress of encryption policies

A quick overview of the highlights of the first day of "Bitcoin 2025"

This shape of the yield curve reflects rising concern over fiscal risk.
If the response ends up being more issuance, more Fed intervention, and eventual monetization… that’s the scenario Bitcoin was built for.
Follow @ecoinometrics for macro-backed Bitcoin insights.