Top」or「Fake Fall」? With an unexpectedly generous official release, Labubu is experiencing a dramatic shift from being sold at dozens of times its original price to a sudden halving of secondary market prices, with market sentiment rapidly transforming from frenzied pursuit to selling.
Just a week ago, Labubu was "hard to obtain", with scalpers monopolizing supplies using booking software and reselling at 10 to 30 times the original price, still finding eager buyers. However, a dramatic reversal occurred on June 18-19.
On the evening of June 18, POP MART's official mini-program restocked the Labubu "High Energy" series with unprecedented intensity, and for the first time opened an online pre-sale channel.
The official's "generosity" instantly triggered a secondary market collapse, with data from a trendy toy trading platform showing Labubu series prices generally plummeting by about 50%.
The market began questioning the IP's sustainability, with some investors believing Labubu might follow the same path as Violent Bear, and POP MART's stock price dropped over 5% today!
One "Routine Restock" Turns Scalpers from Massive Profits to Losses
On June 18, POP MART's "routine restock" triggered an earthquake in the secondary market.
Data shows this restock caused a price avalanche: according to a trendy toy trading platform, Labubu series prices generally plunged about 50%. Previously sold at 1,500 to 2,800 yuan for a box (6 blind boxes), the recovery price dramatically dropped to the 650-800 yuan range. Even the rare hidden variant "Id" dropped from its 4,600 yuan peak to around 2,800 yuan, a decline of over 38%.
On social platforms, consumers who previously struggled to purchase now shared screenshots of successful orders, with some saying the restock's quantity and frequency far exceeded previous attempts, suggesting the official truly wanted fans to buy.
In what was once a heated scalper group, the atmosphere turned icy. Sellers' 1,200 yuan pre-sale listings went untouched, replaced by low-price calls of "will buy at 700 yuan".
Some scalpers suffered daily losses of tens of thousands of yuan, a dramatic reversal that made netizens gleeful: seeing scalpers lose money was more satisfying than earning money themselves.
This "ugly-cute" spirit that once drove global top celebrities like Rihanna and Beckham crazy is experiencing its first price collapse - and this might just be the beginning of a challenge to POP MART's 350 billion Hong Kong dollar market value myth.
Market Debate: "Peak" or "Fake Fall"?
Labubu's challenges come not just from price fluctuations, but fundamental doubts about its IP's sustainability. Investors began comparing it with historically phenomenal IPs, seeking signs of decline.
Previous reports indicated these concerns aren't unfounded. Violent Bear's popularity sustained for 2 years from 2020 to 2022; last year's "Black Myth: Wukong" maintained heat for less than 3 months; Nezha similarly peaked for only about 3 months during the Spring Festival.
Some analyses suggest four common signals of young people's asset speculation peaking: first, media and search heat declining; second, producers massively releasing goods at high prices; third, widening price gap between high-end and mid-range; fourth, liquidity stagnation. LABUBU will likely follow AJ and Violent Bear's path, potentially experiencing ≥50% pullback in the next 6-12 months, with an objective probability of about 95% (±10 percentage points).
Supporters, however, offered a different perspective, comparing POP MART with another company relying on core fans and IP ecosystem - Nintendo.
Analysis compared POP MART with gaming giant Nintendo: Nintendo has 106 million annual active users, market value around 850 billion yuan, revenue of 78 billion yuan, P/E ratio of 61; POP MART has 46.08 million registered members, member repurchase rate of 49.4%, expected 2025 P/E ratio of 56, with projected profit growth exceeding 100%.
The analysis argues that Labubu, like games, doesn't need "universal appeal". Its commercial foundation lies in a massive fan base with high loyalty and repurchase rates. POP MART's nearly 50% member repurchase rate is its business model's "moat".
From this perspective, POP MART's valuation doesn't seem unreasonable. The key is whether Labubu can become a cross-generational classic IP like Super Mario, rather than a fleeting internet celebrity product.
